I just don't see Hughes being confident enough in his stand up to go toe to toe with Gracie. He wasn't getting anything done with St. Pierre and got a lucky arm bar. He got his ass beat by BJ Penn who was a doughy 170 pounder who moved up to kick his ass and did so easily.
I think Hughes luck is going to run out eventually and if not this time, if he ever fights Penn again, that will be it.
I see it going to decision and since Hughes is one of their favority poster boys, they will give it to him.