Good question...
Not sure Cro Cop can keep Fedor from taking him down. Fedor uses a lot of upper body take downs, mostly counter moves. He gets inthere and punches with guys then takes them down from the clinch. Not as easy to defend like shots at your legs from the outside... Also, Fedor's ground and pound is probably the best in the world right now.
I still say this is a toss up. Mirko can get a lucky with a left kick in and KO Fedor. All he needs is for Fedor to blink and lower that right hand, it takes a split second.
Also, Ferdo is not 100%, his arm was injured not too long ago.
-BRR