Line Manipulation: Pearls on How to Interpet it

[Spartacus]

Although many come in here and talk about line movement and getting the best number, I don't recall ever seeing a thread where we discuss this in detail...

I believe this topic is one of the most important tools for gamblers to use when betting, so let's share some pearls on how we dissect this information...

There is constantly a lot of what I call "line manipulation" occurring on a daily basis. If you haven't a clue as to how to interpret this, then I suspect some of you will end up getting the worst of it or being on the wrong side of a Major Line Move....

The key is knowing which moves are real, which ones are fake and who to trust.

Would someone else like to continue?

karma prize for the most helpful

 

[H_T_]

i have no idea. never used any systems....

 

[SLAYER69!]

I'd like to hear about this. All I know is that when I see 90% of the public betting on one team, the other one usually is the win. It made me nervous when I saw on the websites how lopsided the betting was in favor of Oklahoma yesterday.

 

[H_T_]

I'd like to hear about this. All I know is that when I see 90% of the public betting on one team, the other one usually is the win. It made me nervous when I saw on the websites how lopsided the betting was in favor of Oklahoma yesterday.

65-70% is top of the boards, no matter how skilled you are. lots of folk can attain this......

 

[Spartacus]

I have been concentrating on this ever since I read that betting skills were more important than handicapping skills

 

[H_T_]

ask a jew...

 

[needtogetarmy]

...

 

[Spartacus]

You would be surprised at all the people who think line movement is the result of money wagered on that event. Biggest myth in gambling. And the other myth is people who think the books just want the publics money. Newsflash they want everyones money and they set up traps for contrarion bettors as well as public bettors.

 

[Spartacus]

one thing that is interesting is sports line movements are not as much of an obvious pattern like in horse racing line movements.

In horse racing the horse to cross off (ie wrong side) is the horses that at 2 minutes to post moves down to significantly lower prices in odds. Reason. The large amount of smart money comes in really late like 0 min to post thus the money coming in at the 2 minute mark while substatial is not high in smart live money (people have to get the wagers in and its getting closer to post now). This reduces the odds on not live horses as this is not smart money, its average joe blow money, but its the only money coming in so in a parimutual situation the prices on those horses dips in odds (Im simplfying here but in general). Horses that remain stable during this period (some money in) or that go up in price and then back down very late are often the smart money horses.

Sports wagers I do not see price action on the LIVE side doing that in a regular manner. Also keep in mind that in 50 games there is really only going to be 3-4 standout live plays for true sharps to consider (most games stats show are lined dead on where they should me and no value either way unless you are the bookmaker and get vig!)

.... ie in sports its not too often that the line moves the wrong way on one sided Joe Blow Public action (manipulation or market forces) 15 minutes before tip off. The books are pretty smart, Im usre they see some one sided action but they will not always move the line for that reason alone, if they did the sharps would hit the better number even harder than they might othersies . If they did everytime that would give the late sharp money the better price...(ie if they did they know the late side monty would come and even more at the better price) ....Thus the sharp sharp sharp guys really dont wait they hit the game when they think the price is best, might be opener, mid week, last second or any combo of those.. But ...


Cripes I know what Im trytrytrying to say but it does not read right!

That is the difference between fixed odds wagering and parimutual. In fixed odds there is no reason to wait you have to jump when you think the best price is there period. If you think you can manipulate the 1/2 point by putting in some anti plays (and lose all that extra vig by the way) In parimutual people tend to wait as to not "pre sell" a live horse with a lower price than expected. That hurts the exotic prices if you do.

http://forums.eog.com/index.php

 

[harmonica]

I try not to watch line movements.....I'm never sure if it's the smart money that's moving the line. I just research who they played....like opponents if any and if not I may look for opponents like opponents (if that makes sense)...where the game is being held...how they played at home/away....running and passing capabilities....defense against the run and pass...who's hot...injuries...and then I may chuck all that information and go with my gut OR bet all I have because I love the team (as I will be doing with the Buckeyes).

btw if I lose that one please hit me with k so I can start over from scratch.....thanks.