Line Manipulation: Pearls on How to Interpet it

[Spartacus]

The Pinny/CRIS line watch.

Many pros watch their lines very closely and pay attention when their lines are shaded as a possible 'tell' that this is the right side. In particular the "stopper" Pinny deals at -111 is huge. If everyone has a game at 4 or 4.5 and Pinny deals -4 -111/+4 +101 that is no big deal, they are just dealing the game at the market 4.25 line.

However, if everyone has the game lined at 4, and Pinny has it -4 -111 they are saying "We don't want anyone betting the favorite". No sharp bettor would play this vs. them, so they are basically just engineering a way to bet at novig and accumulation a position on the favorite -4-101 booking bets. If they stay there for a good time, it is likely they truly actively like the favorite.

Contrast that with things with lower limits, like totals. Pinny could be at over 68.5 -105 on a bowl game (Haw/Ga) when everyone is at 68.5. Suddenly Pinny jumps to over 68.5 -123, and Cris jumps to 69.5. Sharp money on the over? Probably. However, 1/10 of the time it is a head fake, someone jamming in false face bets to get the number higher, other bettors jam in bets to 'get on the right side' and many books move on air to "beat the bettors". Blink twice, the line is 70 everywhere.......making the under a 55% instead of a 53% bet.

The sharpest bettors make their own numbers AND actively follow the market. If they had made a total 72, and the above happened they would bet OVER 68.5 as the line moved. If they made it 65, they would wait for the tsunami of over bets to start to recede, and jam in unders at the 1st signs the market had peaked.

Is this easy? No. However, the bigger the limits being dealt on the game, the more likely a big line move is real, and not just manipulation.

http://forums.eog.com/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=1034386

 

[harmonica]

That's some complicated shit. I should check that website out. If I ever get back to Vegas they wont be able to get me out of the Sportsbooks...Fuck blackjack....betting and watching sports? What could be better? Betting, watching sports and free booze.

 

[Spartacus]

unless you have contact at the particular shop your seeing a line move for i dont see by simply looking at the move how anyone could know the reasons behind the move. If you have db or some similar service then i guess you can catch those moves that are made becasue everyone else is moving but that about it.
For a book to try and lay a trap for its customers using their main line set is a 2 edged sword, there is no guarantee you customers will fall for it. That is basically saying the house is now gambling against its customers and solid shops dont gamble against anyone, they balance their action and lay off those sides that are unbalanced. REAL books look to take vig, not to win sides, period. Shops that go for it all fair no better that most gamblers...long term loosers.

My opinions....However, 1/10 of the time it is a head fake is way too high.

30% of games at Pinny have that sort of line movement on a given day. Ive counted before. I just dont think they are headfakes as only a small portion of those line moves adjust back down before tip (ie as the smart money comes in).. to be a head fake the line would need to go up a good deal and then crash back down at least to the old number before tip. it happens but it is rare rare rare.

1/100 might be a head fake of real sharp seed money hitting a game to get a better number on a buy back.

head fakes get the worst of that wager as they pay full vig on that portion of the wager. I really dont think it happens by sharps anymore very often...It might happen that mostly one sided action does come in on a game due to the smart money NOT playing their side and a line move happens that way. sort of what I described above.

Im not an expert at all FEZ just my interpretation of what I see happen every day.

you peeps should check out this gambling forum
I'm spartacus there too

http://forums.eog.com/

 

[hurricane]

line movements can be because of alot of things ... weather .. injuries... a big swing in vegas .. meaning a large amount being bet on 1 team...if the team u like is an underdawg and the spread keeps goin up its not always a good sign .. might be bad sign

 

[hurricane]

fucking vegas

 

[goin on 4T]

To me it is akin to market makers playing with the bid/ask on OTC and Penny stocks, it is pure minipulation to create a false sense of optimism to get people to throw away there hard earned money. I have seen this first hand and it is very bad for the company whos stock is being traded and the joe investor who plunks $200-2,000 on one of these lottery stocks. This is one of the main reasons I quit betting with real money. There is a lot of game playing with not only the line but with certain players in the sport! Even in college level games the $ is to great for certain players not to play to their capabilities and do things that are in the benifit of the book!
Just look at downtown LV, those casino's would be hurting for players if they did not offer some type of incetive. Such as reducing the number of decks played in blackjack from 4-6 decks to 1-2 decks. The lower the number of decks statistically the higher the probablity of winner. Perception or reality?
Great topic btw Spart!

 

[Spartacus]

soembody host tonight's NCAA game in Ohio
and you can get the 5K karma here

 

[Spartacus]

 

[goin on 4T]

Who dat?
HR?