Sammy Sosa is back to defend his title. Maybe Barry Bonds can end his home-run slump -- he hasn't hit one out his last 13 games. Alex Rodriguez will participate too, boos and all. Yes, it's Home Run Derby time and ESPN.com has surveyed experts and insiders, we've talked to hardcore analysts and investigated the numbers with a magnifying glass, all to figure out who will win the Derby.
So, we present the odds, but we do not advocate betting on sporting events. That's bad for you.
Sammy Sosa
Home runs: 29
Home run rate: one HR every 10.27 at-bats
Home/road: 12/17
vs. LH/RH: 3/26
Best month: June (11)
In July: 3
Slammin' Sammy has been a one-man wrecking crew for the first-place Cubbies, who lead the NL Central despite ranking 12th in the NL in runs scored. But don't blame Sosa, who has knocked in 83 of the team's 401 runs. And that's despite 21 intentional walks thus far. By the way, he's on pace for 55 homers, 41 doubles and four triples -- that's 100 extra-base hits kiddos. Of course, only the long ball counts in the big Derby, and we get the feeling Sammy is going to love the smell of fresh salmon being grilled on the Safeco Field concourses.
Odds: 2-1. Drops to 3-1 if he eats too much salmon before the Derby.
Alex Rodriguez
Home runs: 25
Home run rate: one HR every 13.56 at-bats
Home/road: 13/12
vs. LH/RH: 7/18
Best month: May (10)
In July: 2
No one is really noticing because of the Rangers' horrible pitching, but A-Rod is on his way to hitting 40 homers and driving in 100 runs for the fourth straight season and is likely to finish in the AL top 10 in OPS and slugging percentage. The good folks in Seattle will surely make it plenty hard for A-Rod to concentrate tonight, but we still like him to be in contention right up to the end. Personally, we think Rodriguez will be jacked up to show the Mariners faithful what they're missing.
Odds: 3-1. Falls to 4-1 if he is showered with funny money while hitting.
Barry Bonds
Home runs: 39
Home run rate: one HR every 6.64 at-bats
Home/road: 19/20
vs. LH/RH: 8/31
Best month: May (17)
In July: 0
Do we smell a slump-buster? Barry hasn't hit a dinger in his last 13 games and is the only player in the Derby without a long ball in the month of July, so maybe a good showing here will help Bonds regain his power stroke. But we all know he's not just a hacker, as evidenced by his league-leading 88 walks (21 ahead of Sammy Sosa), his .305 average and an out-of-this-world 1.314 OPS. And don't forget that Barry outdueled Big Mac in the '96 Derby, so he knows how to win these things.
Odds:5-1. Down to 7-1 if he doesn't wear his cap backwards.
Luis Gonzalez
Home runs: 35
Home run rate: one HR every 9.43 at-bats
Home/road: 13-22
vs. LH/RH: 9/26
Best month: April (13)
In July: 3
The only guy within sight of Bonds in the home run race will also be doing battle with him in the Home Run Derby. Gonzalez has come out of nowhere (Houston and Detroit, actually) to lead the National League in total bases and RBI this season, and is on pace to break Babe Ruth's 80-year-old record of 457 total bases. He's not a natural home run hitter, though, so we see him struggling in spacious Safeco Field.
Odds:10-1. Rises to 8-1 if his wife and the triplets are in the house.
Troy Glaus
Home runs: 22
Home run rate: one HR every 14.55 at-bats
Home/road:13/9
vs. LH/RH: 7/15
Best month:May (8)
In July: 1
Glaus led the AL with 47 round-trippers last season and is on pace to top 40 again in 2001. His average has hovered around .250, though, and Anaheim has struggled to score runs this season (12th in the AL with 374). And you can bet he's thanking his lucky stars that Cal Ripken beat out David Bell in the voting at 3B, or else Glaus might be watching this thing from home. But Glaus has a swing built for power, so if he gets hot he may sneak up on the field like Jeromy Burnitz did back in '99. Odds:12-1. Up to 10-1 if anyone menton's Bell's name.
Manny Ramirez
Home runs: 26
Home run rate: one HR every 12.62 at-bats
Home/road: 13/13
vs. LH/RH: 7/19
Best month: April (9)
In July: 2
Manny managed just three homers in his last Home Run Derby, in 1995, but enters this year's contest as a favorite for the MVP award and serious Triple Crown threat. He is tied for the league lead in homers (26) and RBI (84) and his .335 average is good for fourth-best in the AL. Ramirez has hit some serious bombs this year, from his moon shot onto the Massachusetts Turnpike to his fifth-deck tater at SkyDome, but without the Green Monster to shoot for and a shaky history in the Derby, we see him finishing out of the money.
Odds:15-1. Up to 10-1 if he can get the Carl Everett-Trot Nixon flap off his mind.
Todd Helton
Home runs: 26
Home run rate: one HR every 12.12 at-bats
Home/road: 15/11
vs. LH/RH: 3/23
Best month: May (9)
In July: 1
Helton is tied for the league lead with 84 RBI, is fifth with 26 HR and is batting .314, but he might not even be the best hitter on his own team. Larry Walker may own that distinction this season, but we can't forget that Helton hit over .370 with 42 bombs last year. The air is thicker in Seattle than in Denver, however, and the Coors Field advantage won't apply at Safeco.
Odds:20-1. Shoots to 15-1 if he trades the Coors Light for some of that famous Seattle java.
Bret Boone
Home runs: 22
Home run rate: one HR every 15.45 at-bats
Home/road: 10/12
vs. LH/RH: 8/14
Best month: June (10)
In July: 3
Bret Boone? That's right, an off-season spent in the weight room is responsible for this year's most unlikely Derby entry. Boone's 22 homers entering the All-Star break are just two shy of his career-high and his 84 RBI are only 11 short of his career-best. He'll definitely be the hometown favorite, but he doesn't have a pure power stroke and will probably have a tougher time than the rest with Safeco's big dimensions. Hey, at least he'll get the biggest cheer.
Odds:30-1. His chances are improved only if everyone else drops out.
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