And it's hard to know what they are really looking for. My friend did a figure show this weekend(NPC), and I scratch my head at the placings all the time with figure.
That's an old conversation - its who you know, who you blow, how much you look like Barbie and its still a toss-up.
For this person's purposes, I think there's lots of potential with not so much "losing weight" work as shaping for figure. Then also get the whole "how to DO a show" (the part about actually walking on stage w/ the right outfits, not tripping, being comfortable, getting your posing right, your tanning, the hair, the makeup, etc.) - that's what a first show is for. Approximate on that, don't worry too much about how you place, but talk to the judges to see if you can get any constructive criticism for the next time around when you are fine-tuning what you've learned & accomplished from the first show.