Tax Bracket Math... Check Me If I'm Missing Something

[billfred]

I don't think we'll ever make the cuts. We need to crash first.

Republicans won't let them make the necessary cuts to defense.
Democrats won't let them make the necessary cuts to entitlements.

If you're going to spend over a trillion more than you take in every year, the brackets don't matter unless everyone goes (even the poor) to ~50% rates.

The whole argument is ridiculous.

Here is the only problem with your argument. What they have to do right now is raise REVENUE and cut expenses.

By letting all the tax cuts expire now, which they will have to do eventually, will through the economy in a recession and actually reduce revenue.

They need to come up with a phase out of all tax cuts and a phase in of spending cuts to get Defense and Entitlement back to the same % of GDP the last time we had a balanced budget.

 

[mrplunkey]

Here is the only problem with your argument. What they have to do right now is raise REVENUE and cut expenses.

By letting all the tax cuts expire now, which they will have to do eventually, will through the economy in a recession and actually reduce revenue.

They need to come up with a phase out of all tax cuts and a phase in of spending cuts to get Defense and Entitlement back to the same % of GDP the last time we had a balanced budget.

I completely agree that raising taxes hurts the economy and reduces overall revenue. Art Laffer and Ronald Reagan figured that out over thirty years ago. If it's generally agreed that raising taxes now would hurt the economy, I guess it's a bipartisan endorsement that Bush's tax cuts were the right thing to do.

And the phased-in approach sounds reasonable, except for one problem. Washington loves doing multi-year plans with little or no impact until the later years, knowing full well that they'll just undo the cuts and keep spending when the time comes.

 

[Headholio]

The fiscal cliff is less than one-half of the financial improvements that we'd have to do. And even then, it doesn't address the re-balloning of entitlements as well as the mother of all entitlements we have coming (BarryCare).

I love watching people bitch about the measly cuts in defense and entitlements that are on the table right now. That's a far cry from what cuts need to be made.

Well, you are wrong. (ah, such fond memories of explaining the obvious to Plunkey).
-Go to the CBO document link I posted.
-Go to page 7 and look at the graph.
-Note that the debt as a percentage of GDP goes down beginning in 2012.

That graph does take into account Obamacare (the baseline scenario is based on all current law), and of course it does not assume any imaginary plunkyisms that might be useful in trying to twist things in your direction.

 

[Headholio]

Oh and P.S... Even if we did get to budget neutral someday, you do realize we'd need to pay down some of that $16.4 Trillion, don't you? Or does that just go on the credit card forever?

You need to look at the debt as a percentage of GDP. If that goes down, then it is more manageable. If GDP grows more than the debt, (as projected in the CBO baseline scenario), then eventually you get to a neutral budget, and after that, a decrease in overall debt. Even under the most favorable forecasts paying off that debt would take a long time.

 

[PICK3]

Even under the most favorable forecasts paying off that debt would take a long time.

A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.


~Lao-tzu

 

[mrplunkey]

Well, you are wrong. (ah, such fond memories of explaining the obvious to Plunkey).
-Go to the CBO document link I posted.
-Go to page 7 and look at the graph.
-Note that the debt as a percentage of GDP goes down beginning in 2012.

That graph does take into account Obamacare (the baseline scenario is based on all current law), and of course it does not assume any imaginary plunkyisms that might be useful in trying to twist things in your direction.

Debt As a % of GDP
----------------------
Sept. 30, 2012 101.6%
June 30, 2012 101.7%
March 31, 2012 100.7%
Dec. 31, 2011 99.36%
Sept. 30, 2011 97.54%
June 30, 2011 95.60%
March 31, 2011 96.32%
Dec. 31, 2010 95.18%
Sept. 30, 2010 93.04%
June 30, 2010 91.59%
March 31, 2010 89.51%
---------------------- Obama Presidency Starts
Dec. 31, 2009 87.11%
Sept. 30, 2009 85.36%
June 30, 2009 83.15%
March 31, 2009 79.92%
Dec. 31, 2008 75.98%
Sept. 30, 2008 69.64%
June 30, 2008 65.85%
March 31, 2008 66.12%
Dec. 31, 2007 64.75%
Sept. 30, 2007 63.77%
June 30, 2007 63.45%
March 31, 2007 64.32%
Dec. 31, 2006 63.90%
Sept. 30, 2006 63.33%
June 30, 2006 63.16%
March 31, 2006 63.60%
Dec. 31, 2005 63.33%
Sept. 30, 2005 62.32%
June 30, 2005 62.69%
March 31, 2005 62.91%
Dec. 31, 2004 62.65%
Sept. 30, 2004 61.82%
June 30, 2004 61.84%
March 31, 2004 61.53%
Dec. 31, 2003 61.31%
Sept. 30, 2003 60.27%
June 30, 2003 60.57%
March 31, 2003 59.34%
Dec. 31, 2002 59.49%

I think I see a trend. Should we focus on Barry's disastrous four-year track-record, or a self-serving CBO estimate laden with assumptions that will be revised yearly because it's so wrong?

 

[Headholio]

Obama has inherited quite a Republican mess hasn't he.

 

[bigbassturd]

No, he inherited a manageable problem.

Four years later, he's now inheriting his own disaster, yet noone will have him be held accountable for anything.

'He did it first' is easier than saying 'oh shit, we fucked up too'

 

[Headholio]

No, he inherited a manageable problem.

Four years later, he's now inheriting his own disaster, yet noone will have him be held accountable for anything.

'He did it first' is easier than saying 'oh shit, we fucked up too'

A managable problem, that he is managing, after Republican mis-management, and despite a Congress that has done everything in its power to see that America fails.

Cost of 2 wars - Bush
Cost of Bank Bail out - Bush
Cost of Tax cuts - Bush
Cost of great republican Recession lost revenue - Bush.

 

[bigbassturd]

He has failed to manage anything aside from increasing our massive debt.

It's too far gone, anyone who thinks putting a bandaid on it by making 'neccessary cuts' is in denial.

We must crash and burn, we've already ran it up past the point of no return, and it's not like we haven't had our credit rating downgraded before...