Indy's D is much better than KC's last year. Granted they aren't top shelf or anything, but they aren't as bad as people make it out to be. I think the Colts are awesome, but it's hard to say NE isn't the team to beat. I say Pitt probably loses a game before the end of the season, and if NE doesn't, then the playoffs still go through NE and I don't see Indy or Pitt winning there.
As for the NFC, yeah the Falcons looked damn good today. I don't think Carolina is the third best team in the NFC though. I'd take both Minnesota and Green Bay before Carolina, even though Carolina is on a bit of a run. I'd rank the NFC Philly, Atlanta, GB, Minnesota, Carolina, and then take your pick. I know Seattle beat Minny today but I don't see Seattle doing anything. They are lucky they won today in fact.