good stocks to invest in?

[Ganryu]

Are you a user?

 

[Boulder257]

OMGWTFBBQ, that's okay if you are a technical analyst, but Enron looked good technically too...what about fundamentals?

 

[tia373]

I daytrade, so I am - a technical analyst.
However, you can only use so much capital at a time to day trade due to the bid and ask of a stock.
If you are thinking of a year span- as the market is likely- (this is the stock market and "likely" is as good as it gets. ) You should invest in what are called ETFs. These are Exchange traded funds. This means that you can buy the "fund" of the 100 Nasdaq stocks the same way that you would buy a share of stock.

so- if you want to buy the Nasdaq 100 - the ticker symbol is QQQ
SMH= the semiconductor holders
DIA = the Dow jones 30 stocks
SPY = the S&P stocks.

If you want to email me - feel free- just put something like elite fitness in the subject area so that I dont delete the email.

I spend all day with the stock market- so ........................

Running fractal analysis on all US stocks that trade more than 250K in avg volume for the past 80 days (about), and also limiting them so that they must have over 1600 trading days of data (over 6 years) - looking for non-random breaks in the entropy...

The following stocks have better than random chances of going up (this is relatively long term, there might be some that are even better in the short term - but anything short term is going to have a large enough margin of error to negate the change in probability anyway):

(these are in order of highest probability to go up over time consistently - if you want I can reorder them in order of which will have the largest swings in movement - I believe TRO would be at the top in that one)

ESS
PNP
MGA
MRGE
TRO
CTSH
INKP
CEDC
MVL
MAC
NANO
POG
UHCO
CLI
HME
AFCO
EPIQ
REG
ADVP


If you just want some stocks that are good, but with no analysis and are as likely to go up or down as anything else, then:
G, MO, ENT, PFE, RNR, DEO, C, MC, KO, CSCO

Those are some well known and relatively highly traded stocks in a few different sectors.
By putting money into them evenly (10% into each), and then keeping that 10% constant over time, you mathematically are going to do at least as well as an index fund and have a very high probability of beating it on average over time.
It becomes easier the more stocks you spread it over (but conversely becomes less effective as you trade more if your trading fees negate the amount you can move).
In order to benefit most from this, you would likely want to avoid capital gains taxes and reduce you trading fees and therefore just update the portfolio once a year (redistributing the money so that they are all at 10% of the total money).
If you are going to do that though, you would find it even easier to just put your money in a mutual fund (I like Fidelity's biotech) or an index fund.

If you just want hot tips that are risky as hell, then put all of your money into either HEC or EVOL.

 

[OMGWTFBBQ]

However, you can only use so much capital at a time to day trade due to the bid and ask of a stock.

Technically speaking, if you are going to daytrade then you only want to trade (2P-1)*$ on any trade - where P is the probability of that stock's upward movement for one day in the future (technically with adjusted error) and the dollar sign represents all of the money you have available to trade.

If you trade less, then you are not maximizing your trade, and if you trade more, you are taking on more risk than you should for the trade.

And Boulder - I personally trade in and out and of things, so the Enron sort of thing (not that I would have even been in it), is slightly less of a deal with limits set.

As for long term analysis - you would want to run the same entropy check on it over time to see what is changing as well.
Every single stock on the market will delist if given enough time.

 

[tia373]

How are you calculating your probability?
If you were to use that on an illiquid stock - and your available capital was 100k and the stock was priced at $5 the Probability seems to me - that you would be up a creek.
But you are likely doing what works for you. Lots of different people have different styles.
For individual investors, I continue to recommend ETFs as they are not as exposed to news as individual companies are. Especially as we are just hitting earnings quarter.

so
I am still with QQQ, DIA, SMH and other ETFS.


Are you an active day trader- a swing trader---- what is your style?

Technically speaking, if you are going to daytrade then you only want to trade (2P-1)*$ on any trade - where P is the probability of that stock's upward movement for one day in the future (technically with adjusted error) and the dollar sign represents all of the money you have available to trade.

If you trade less, then you are not maximizing your trade, and if you trade more, you are taking on more risk than you should for the trade.

And Boulder - I personally trade in and out and of things, so the Enron sort of thing (not that I would have even been in it), is slightly less of a deal with limits set.

As for long term analysis - you would want to run the same entropy check on it over time to see what is changing as well.
Every single stock on the market will delist if given enough time.

 

[OMGWTFBBQ]

How are you calculating your probability?

...

Are you an active day trader- a swing trader---- what is your style?

Swing trader I guess.

At this point I am interviewing with a hedge fund to try and get in there. Hence why I am using all of the techniques that they use.

As for the probability, it is the same time series analysis that one can apply to anything that is Brownian motion.

A rough description is to take the change in value over time and then you want the end average of that the root mean square of that.
From there, where P is the probability, it is P = ((avg/rms)+1)/2

There is slightly more to it and it has a low enough error margin after about 2500 data points - although that can be changed by spreading over a larger number of stocks - if you are in 10 stocks, then your margin of error can be higher - meaning you can use fewer days to look at to calculate it.

I also have a system of neural nets and various other algorithms going against the stuff and I like when they are all in agreement with the probability code and technical indicators - that always points to an up day (TRO today for instance).

But yeah - we all have our systems.

 

[Y_lifter]

You might want to look into their boxer briefs also.

um...

 

[alltraps]

good info, thanks. i knew there were some high rollers in here

 

[tia373]

That is very interesting information. I have copied it and will experiment with it.

Even as a daytrader I want to know how to swing trade as efficiently as possible. As (for me) swing trading has additional risks.

I am going to have to do some research with that formula. Can you give me some tickers that you feel fit the formula really well so I can learn from their example?

Much appreciated

Swing trader I guess.

At this point I am interviewing with a hedge fund to try and get in there. Hence why I am using all of the techniques that they use.

As for the probability, it is the same time series analysis that one can apply to anything that is Brownian motion.

A rough description is to take the change in value over time and then you want the end average of that the root mean square of that.
From there, where P is the probability, it is P = ((avg/rms)+1)/2

There is slightly more to it and it has a low enough error margin after about 2500 data points - although that can be changed by spreading over a larger number of stocks - if you are in 10 stocks, then your margin of error can be higher - meaning you can use fewer days to look at to calculate it.

I also have a system of neural nets and various other algorithms going against the stuff and I like when they are all in agreement with the probability code and technical indicators - that always points to an up day (TRO today for instance).

But yeah - we all have our systems.

 

[tia373]

Actually- I have a difficult client who you might be more proficient in helping. He has alot of accounts. He needs someone who can manage them well.

Please let me know and I will contact him.


regards

tia

Swing trader I guess.

At this point I am interviewing with a hedge fund to try and get in there. Hence why I am using all of the techniques that they use.

As for the probability, it is the same time series analysis that one can apply to anything that is Brownian motion.

A rough description is to take the change in value over time and then you want the end average of that the root mean square of that.
From there, where P is the probability, it is P = ((avg/rms)+1)/2

There is slightly more to it and it has a low enough error margin after about 2500 data points - although that can be changed by spreading over a larger number of stocks - if you are in 10 stocks, then your margin of error can be higher - meaning you can use fewer days to look at to calculate it.

I also have a system of neural nets and various other algorithms going against the stuff and I like when they are all in agreement with the probability code and technical indicators - that always points to an up day (TRO today for instance).

But yeah - we all have our systems.