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Fed Interest Rate hike or lower?

redguru

New member
This is a no-brainer but I will put it up for Lummie anyway.

The U.S. economy shook off the after-effects from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita to post stronger-than-expected growth of 3.8 percent in the third quarter, led by strong consumer and government spending.

* A record monthly surge in energy costs in September pushed consumer prices up 1.2 percent, the fastest pace in 25 years. The annual rate jumped to 4.7 percent, far higher than U.S. businesses and consumers have become accustomed to in recent years.

So far, energy costs have not muscled through to core inflation. But core inflation is near the top of the Fed's perceived tolerance zone of 1 percent to 2 percent, and there are more widespread anecdotal reports that businesses are able to pass on price increases.

* September payrolls declined 35,000, showing a smaller impact from the hurricanes than feared, and this suggests the labor market in the rest of the nation remains solid. Expectations for the October report are for a rise of 100,000.

* Consumer confidence has taken a hit since Hurricane Katrina and the resulting spike in energy prices, souring further in October. The Conference Board sentiment index fell to 85.0 in October, a two-year low, after diving in September.

Economists are worried about the outlook for the holiday shopping season, when higher heating costs will also bite. In September, retail sales edged up 0.6 percent outside of the auto and gasoline sectors.

* The manufacturing sector powered ahead in September, according to the national ISM index, and for October expectations are for still solid growth. The October report will be released as the FOMC meets on Tuesday morning.
 
that and the low max show that the bookie is quite risk-averse! Not a good trait in a bookie!

red, feel free to shoot me a PM.
 
They'll lower it I don't think consumers and the general public understand how hard Katrina hit us and how much it's affecting the economy.
 
rocksolid215 said:
They'll lower it I don't think consumers and the general public understand how hard Katrina hit us and how much it's affecting the economy.
that's why I'm thinking it stays
 
4everhung said:
that's why I'm thinking it stays

I'm new at this, rusty on financials. But wouldn't you think they would lower it to increase consumer spending because of the hurricane? why would it stay the same?

Just seems like a natural economic way to pump money into the economy by lowering the interest rates.

?
 
rocksolid215 said:
I'm new at this, rusty on financials. But wouldn't you think they would lower it to increase consumer spending because of the hurricane? why would it stay the same?

Just seems like a natural economic way to pump money into the economy by lowering the interest rates.

?
my econ is rusty too
despite the hurricanes the economyis weathering the storm well(so to speak)
a raise is out because it's too tenous right now
and lowering isn't necessary
new guy stands pat
 
if anyone here thinks anything besides a quarter point rate hike is going to happen, you havent' been paying attention the last 18 years
 
4everhung said:
my econ is rusty too
despite the hurricanes the economyis weathering the storm well(so to speak)
a raise is out because it's too tenous right now
and lowering isn't necessary
new guy stands pat

New guy doesn't start until January dude.
 
Yeah, I figured it was, I should have made the odds on the other options much higher to add interest.
 
redguru said:
Yeah, I figured it was, I should have made the odds on the other options much higher to add interest.

I agree.

There is always the next FOMC. You will stand to gain more that way as well, as some people won't be able to pass up a 100:1 payoff.

Anyway, good show. :golf clap:
 
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