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12/22 NFL Dallas @ Carolina saturday night special

sigourney_beaver

New member
Dallas was held to six points at home by Philly and hits the road to face upset-minded Carolina in Week 16. The Cowboys opened as huge road chalk but after the Cats upset the Seahawks, are they ready to give the ‘Boys a game? Of note, the past four meetings have all played OVER the total.

Oddsmakers currently have the Cowboys listed as 11-point favorites versus the Panthers, while the game's total is sitting at 43.

The Cowboys lost to Philadelphia 10-6 as a 10-point favorite in Week 15. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (49).

Tony Romo completed 13-of-36 passes for 214 yards with three interceptions for Dallas and Marion Barber rushed for 32 yards on seven carries.

The Panthers defeated Seattle 13-10 as a 7.5-point underdog in Week 15. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (37).

DeAngelo Williams rushed for 61 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries for Carolina, while Matt Moore completed 19-of-27 passes fro 208 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions in the win.
 
This is interesting. The Panthers seem to be healthy while America's Team is not at its best, notably Romo with a bad thumb. That the Cowboys are still fighting for homefield advantage is the only thing stopping this being a comfortable Panthers call.
 
The outcome of the game is coming down to Tony Romo and his touchdown to interception ratio. In the 80 percent of simulations where the Cowboys win, Romo averages 2.2 TD passes vs. just 1 interception. In Cowboys losses he averages 1.5 TD passes and 1.5 interceptions. After several quiet weeks look for Terrell Owens to have a big game with a 50 percent chance of reaching 100 yards and 1 TD. Teams are going to start gearing up to contain Jason Witten which should leave Owens open for some big plays.
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