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- Thread starter Raptorex
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vixensghost
New member
Depends. What has the past history been with the stock(s)?
J
jerseyrugger76
Guest
What's happened to you? Perhaps ATW has a kitteh 
who could help! If not, I might be able to. 
who could help! If not, I might be able to. 
Creepusmaximus
New member
MightyMouse69 said:
Run or learn to short sell.
Mavafanculo
New member
if you're a long term investor, you should probably hold on.
I think the stat was that pick any 5 year period in the last 50 years and if you bought on any given day you woud have an 80% chance of being profitable. bull market bear market. no matter. I may have the exact stat wrong, but you get the point.
I think the stat was that pick any 5 year period in the last 50 years and if you bought on any given day you woud have an 80% chance of being profitable. bull market bear market. no matter. I may have the exact stat wrong, but you get the point.
needtogetarmy
CEO of Project Mayhem
I think there is a possibility the US Stock market could be making a longer term top. This of course does not bode well for stocks, especially people who believe in holding stock for the long run.
Just remember that the fact the stock market has always gone up in the past doesn't necessarily mean it will always go up in the future. The US is losing its position as the #1 economy in the world and there is only one place to go, and that is down.
I am long precious metals and also have a basket of foreign currencies. I have some money in some emerging market funds but I believe I may need to lighten my exposure to that this year.
Also, one may think the stock market made a new high this past year but that is only in nominal terms. If one values, say the DJIA, in respect to the value of the dollar, it has gone down since the year 2000. Its real (not nominal value) is approximately close to 10,000 which shows that all of those stocks are actually worth less than they were in 2000.
I read a ton of blogs and follow this stuff actively (and actively manage my own portfolio). Here is a good link: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/
Just remember that the fact the stock market has always gone up in the past doesn't necessarily mean it will always go up in the future. The US is losing its position as the #1 economy in the world and there is only one place to go, and that is down.
I am long precious metals and also have a basket of foreign currencies. I have some money in some emerging market funds but I believe I may need to lighten my exposure to that this year.
Also, one may think the stock market made a new high this past year but that is only in nominal terms. If one values, say the DJIA, in respect to the value of the dollar, it has gone down since the year 2000. Its real (not nominal value) is approximately close to 10,000 which shows that all of those stocks are actually worth less than they were in 2000.
I read a ton of blogs and follow this stuff actively (and actively manage my own portfolio). Here is a good link: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/
needtogetarmy
CEO of Project Mayhem
I think there is a possibility the US Stock market could be making a longer term top. This of course does not bode well for stocks, especially people who believe in holding stock for the long run.
Just remember that the fact the stock market has always gone up in the past doesn't necessarily mean it will always go up in the future. The US is losing its position as the #1 economy in the world and there is only one place to go, and that is down.
I am long precious metals and also have a basket of foreign currencies. I have some money in some emerging market funds but I believe I may need to lighten my exposure to that this year.
Also, one may think the stock market made a new high this past year but that is only in nominal terms. If one values, say the DJIA, in respect to the value of the dollar, it has gone down since the year 2000. Its real (not nominal value) is approximately close to 10,000 which shows that all of those stocks are actually worth less than they were in 2000.
I read a ton of blogs and follow this stuff actively (and actively manage my own portfolio). Here is a good link: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/
Just remember that the fact the stock market has always gone up in the past doesn't necessarily mean it will always go up in the future. The US is losing its position as the #1 economy in the world and there is only one place to go, and that is down.
I am long precious metals and also have a basket of foreign currencies. I have some money in some emerging market funds but I believe I may need to lighten my exposure to that this year.
Also, one may think the stock market made a new high this past year but that is only in nominal terms. If one values, say the DJIA, in respect to the value of the dollar, it has gone down since the year 2000. Its real (not nominal value) is approximately close to 10,000 which shows that all of those stocks are actually worth less than they were in 2000.
I read a ton of blogs and follow this stuff actively (and actively manage my own portfolio). Here is a good link: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/
needtogetarmy
CEO of Project Mayhem
Also: US recession is already here, warns Merrill
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/01/07/bcnuseco107.xml
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/01/07/bcnuseco107.xml
J
jerseyrugger76
Guest
MightyMouse69 said:
Provide more specific information next time, I'll give you a real answer. I have data at my fingertips that would run you about $90,000+ per year just to access. See the occupation line in my profile.
Raptorex
New member
jerseyrugger76 said:Provide more specific information next time, I'll give you a real answer. I have data at my fingertips that would run you about $90,000+ per year just to access. See the occupation line in my profile.
I'm pretty diversified (US, International - stocks/bonds), probably just taking the average beating (lost 7k this week). Just seeking an answer to the larger question of whether or not I'll get wiped out.
gotmilk
New member
I had a good year with Canadian Uranium mining companies. Casino stocks were huge for me last year, but that's also because my business partner was in the industry for 30 years (the first manager of Playboy casinos).
I also think Playboy (PLA) is going to see some buying pressure later this year as Hef cleans out his common shares. Christy has the preferred locked up.
I also think Playboy (PLA) is going to see some buying pressure later this year as Hef cleans out his common shares. Christy has the preferred locked up.
Hold on. People lose money by doing exactly what youre planning on doing. Dont try and time the market.
As someone else in this thread say, if you take any 5 year period since the stock market first opened, it has always been up.
Of course, taking a page out of my book and having GLD and VICEX as part of your portfolio for the past few years may have helped also.
Remember, its not about timing the market...its about time in the market.
As someone else in this thread say, if you take any 5 year period since the stock market first opened, it has always been up.
Of course, taking a page out of my book and having GLD and VICEX as part of your portfolio for the past few years may have helped also.
Remember, its not about timing the market...its about time in the market.
needtogetarmy
CEO of Project Mayhem
jerseyrugger76 said:Provide more specific information next time, I'll give you a real answer. I have data at my fingertips that would run you about $90,000+ per year just to access. See the occupation line in my profile.
Analysts predicted 15 out of the last 4 recessions too lol
Raptorex
New member
thanks bro's good advice GM, AV & 75th...I'll hang tough and seek opportunites
75th said:Hold on. People lose money by doing exactly what youre planning on doing. Dont try and time the market.
As someone else in this thread say, if you take any 5 year period since the stock market first opened, it has always been up.
Of course, taking a page out of my book and having GLD and VICEX as part of your portfolio for the past few years may have helped also.
Remember, its not about timing the market...its about time in the market.
Creepusmaximus
New member
gotmilk said:
Really? I'm playing short for the next few months. Credit cards are the next problem spot and the Housing crash is passing through to the US jobs market. The question is will China fall apart in the near future. Basicly if the world goes to Hell the US market will be a safe haven.
Any who. I like GS on a big down, under 170. Liking VPHM long right now and ALVR long. Here's one I've been shorting since $38. AMR. Under 10 it's looking like a good buy. Target buy price $6. That sector is getting hit big time.
Lots of play it by ear stuff going on but I think we are in a bear market and it will continue for a while.
Last edited:
Big Rick Rock
istrator
!!!!!
J
jerseyrugger76
Guest
Army Vet said:
Economists forecast recessions, genius, analysts value investments. And that jar of change you have from your last trip to Europe doesn't count as an investment in a "basket of currencies." lol
patsfan1379
New member
All my monies are stashed in hundred dolla bills in my mattress.
Creepusmaximus
New member
patsfan1379 said:
Might want to buy silver dollars.
gotmilk
New member
blueta2 said:
There are a lot of great emerging companies on the TSX. Tougher listing standards than our scammy pink sheets.
Haemacare has products being tested by our military and at John Hopkins....and I saw another that is testing battery wafers. The CEO was the guy who developed Microsoft's programs for cell phones and smaller instruments. The guy figured out how to turn silicon wafers into batteries
SofaGeorge
New member
Bro, I have seriously lost in ALL in the stock market twice. Do NOT invest your future in risk.
digimon7068
New member
there are no "stock market guru's". . .that is all. . .enjoy the ride. . .
SofaGeorge
New member
1. Consolodation instead of diversification. I knew EVERYTHING about the stock, product, and company... and it was a sure thing mega hit... so I completely consolodated my portfolio.
2. Margin - I knew how great a winner it was so I went out on margin to maximize profits
3. Risk stock ... both times the stock would be considered a "risk" as it was a new type of product launched
4. I bet against the shorts. Never do this. Shorts always win.
Basically, I lost it all on a "sure thing" twice.
The funny part is I was 100% correct about how good the products were. They were revolutionary and ended up changing the industry... but not until after both companies went bankrupt.
2. Margin - I knew how great a winner it was so I went out on margin to maximize profits
3. Risk stock ... both times the stock would be considered a "risk" as it was a new type of product launched
4. I bet against the shorts. Never do this. Shorts always win.
Basically, I lost it all on a "sure thing" twice.
The funny part is I was 100% correct about how good the products were. They were revolutionary and ended up changing the industry... but not until after both companies went bankrupt.
gotmilk
New member
SofaGeorge said:
Never buy what you cannot pay for immediately. Margin calls suck.
Not quite true. Taser is a company that made me an ungodly amount of money. I was in below $10 and rode the 3 for 1 split into their short covering. Shorts who are jumping on shitty companies always win. Shorts gambling on a company that is producing revenue and profits always get hammered at some point.
Raptorex
New member
Good advice George, I will try to remember it as I go forward - thanks for sharing.
Gotmilk - thanks also for your insights.
We should get this moved to the Investment forum and share more ideas.
Gotmilk - thanks also for your insights.
We should get this moved to the Investment forum and share more ideas.
SofaGeorge said:1. Consolodation instead of diversification. I knew EVERYTHING about the stock, product, and company... and it was a sure thing mega hit... so I completely consolodated my portfolio.
2. Margin - I knew how great a winner it was so I went out on margin to maximize profits
3. Risk stock ... both times the stock would be considered a "risk" as it was a new type of product launched
4. I bet against the shorts. Never do this. Shorts always win.
Basically, I lost it all on a "sure thing" twice.
The funny part is I was 100% correct about how good the products were. They were revolutionary and ended up changing the industry... but not until after both companies went bankrupt.
Remember that 91% of your performance in the market is going to be based strictly on the allocation. Market timing, specific security selection, etc usually dont amount to shit. This is, of course, if you are taking the more sensible (ie long term) approach to investing and not looking for a quick buck.
needtogetarmy
CEO of Project Mayhem
gotmilk said:
Margin is perfectly good. Why bother risking your money when you can risk someone else's?
The most prudent thing to do is to use very tight stops. It saves me every time.
Big Rick Rock
istrator
Dow Plunges 277...
Jim Cramer blames it on the FED.
Jim Cramer blames it on the FED.
Big Rick Rock
istrator
gotmilk said:
I thought that injection of money they got was to prevent just this.
Well I am not at all into stocks, But what I do know is that typically we have a few times where they drop a semi large amount yet bounce right back...This time it looks as though nothing is going to bounce right back for time to come. I say if you are getting slammed more and more and losing out more than normal, run.
yeah that is why I added my input. I do know that there are many out there who have pulled out when they thought they would lose, but there are also the other percentage who haven't and lost all too much. Personally I would pull out on a few select ones at the moment.My dad in law is all up into stock crap, all he keeps saying is gold, go for the gold. LOLMightyMouse69 said:
Buy more. Everything is on sale.
For every growth period of 10 years, there is always a recession that has averaged 8 months over the past 50 years.
Things will probably continue declining in most areas (especially mid and small cap as most people move their money out of riskier stocks into large cap) but itll be over soon. If youre that worried, just increase your stake in fixed income. Fixed actually outperformed the S&P by a good margin in '07.
For every growth period of 10 years, there is always a recession that has averaged 8 months over the past 50 years.
Things will probably continue declining in most areas (especially mid and small cap as most people move their money out of riskier stocks into large cap) but itll be over soon. If youre that worried, just increase your stake in fixed income. Fixed actually outperformed the S&P by a good margin in '07.
Dont know it, but then again I only look into a handful of stocks. Bought MA when it IPO'd, AMP in 10/05 after the spinoff from Amex, but thats pretty much it. Im going to sink a shitload of money into Visa when it IPO's in the next month or so.
Im a big ETF guy. Buying stocks properly takes too much research.
Im a big ETF guy. Buying stocks properly takes too much research.
Raptorex
New member
Dude, I bought a shit load of this at about 75, lost my panties.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=FSDCX&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=FSDCX&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
Thats no good.
The Fed is going to keep rubbing its ass with our money, so you can look into UDN as a hedge for the upcoming recession. Ive owned GLD for about a year, but I wouldnt suggest that as much simply because if gold hasnt peaked, it will in the near future. Although, Im a big believer that gold will hit $1,000/ounce by the end of the year, so it may be worth it.
The Fed is going to keep rubbing its ass with our money, so you can look into UDN as a hedge for the upcoming recession. Ive owned GLD for about a year, but I wouldnt suggest that as much simply because if gold hasnt peaked, it will in the near future. Although, Im a big believer that gold will hit $1,000/ounce by the end of the year, so it may be worth it.
SanFrancisco
New member
Honestly i think Army Vet had the best advice, that just because the market has always gone up in the past, doesn't mean it will continue to do so. With America facing competition from China and India, our market which is basically right where it was 8 years ago may stay static for another 8.
SanFrancisco
New member
75th said:
Fuzy Math
SanFrancisco
New member
You mean when the market went from about 12K to 8K, then took 6 years to bounce back? Is that the windfall you're referring to?
SanFrancisco said:
My pacific investment fund was the one that kept me in the positive during the last quarter of '07, so I totally agree that there is generally more growth to be enjoyed in those countries. However, I think if you're living in America, or a country with a very closely tied economy like Canada, it's in your best interest to keep holding American stocks as well. If we all divest heavily in Domestic and run scared it's going to screw our own economy mightily.
I'm going to stay about 50/50 domestic/international for the longterm, with probably about 30% of my int being asian.
Probably a good pick.MightyMouse69 said:
I picked up a few shares of JPM yesterday knowing that they are the only bank who knows what theyre doing. Hence the big lift today after their earnings came out.
Within the next 2 years theres really only going to be 2-3 big banks, and JPM will be one of them.
bran987
New member
I disagree, I believe ArmyVet offered the 2nd best advice in this thread only to 75th.SanFrancisco said:
Yes, naturally I've read the stories about subprime losses, about overstretched consumers, about oil prices. Of course we know all about this. Here's the thing: I don't think that the market does a very good job in *predicting* macroeconomic factors. After all, we've been hearing about these things since 2002. The amount of opportunities that we would ahve passed up in the meantime waiting for consumer armageddon would have been phenomenal.
With that in mind, individual companies each have a value. They have current earnings, forecasted earnings for the next year, and the next 5 years justified by certain real factors, and all those cash flows can be discounted and assigned a reasonable terminable value, and sometimes you can do all that and cut it in HALF and still come out OK on the price of the stock currently... that's what is going to be available in the coming months and some of what is already available. That is how you outperform.
But the stock market batters all stocks without favoritism. It doesn't care whether a company is good or bad. It just sells, or buys, in bulk, for tax reasons, to close out funds, to reopen funds, to do any number of a things that have nothing to do with the value of a company, and the stock will float with it. I hate to use the term "Mr. Market" because it's just a silly way to characterize the obvious market INefficiency that Warren has spoken about for the past 40 years.
One of the stock market "gurus" I most respect offered this:
"I certainly don't possess skill in predicting macroeconomic factors and their impact. I don't think there are many people who do. They certainly aren't the ones yapping in the media. If I focus on company-specific and stock-specific factors (is it cheap? are they good managers?) I feel like I'm working in an environment where I can add value."
If you are looking at a fund and trying to predict macro factors and whether or not the stock market is going to go up or down as a whole, god help you seriously man.
Can't help ya! But individual stock can offer superior returns.
Raptorex
New member
75th said:
Looks good, I like the dividend too.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_quote?Symbol=jpm
Raptorex
New member
Just be thankful you didn't own this:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.aspx?Symbol=MBI&CP=0&PT=4
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.aspx?Symbol=MBI&CP=0&PT=4
MightyMouse69 said:
Jamie Dimon has wanted to buy Wamu for a long while now. JPM needs presence on the west coast, and Wamu does have an attractive loan portfolio. Hes a smart man, that Jamie.
I know he was also thinking aloud about making a play for HSBC a while back to get greater exposure into Asia. That I dont see happening, at least not for a while. The executives at HSBC are known to save every single paper clip just to help cut down on costs.
rsnoble-im-back
Banned
MightyMouse69 said:
Give me a list of your stocks and I will give you technical insight. The time to run was weeks ago. Now you're considered an investor. And investor is the dirtiest word I know.
rsnoble-im-back
Banned
rsnoble-im-back said:
Now I will show you how smart I really am. Without even looking at your stocks, all the charts most likely SUCK! LOL. Still though, I would like to see what you are in. You could be lucky and be in some spots that might bounce.
rsnoble-im-back
Banned
Possible market reversal. Hope you didn't sell this am.
Possible ETF for $15 gain =USD. That's an etf for the chip sector, not the US dollar.
Possible ETF for $15 gain =USD. That's an etf for the chip sector, not the US dollar.
patsfan1379
New member
rsnoble-im-back said:
what does that mean in english?
rsnoble-im-back
Banned
patsfan1379 said:
That means had you bought it when I offered it you would be up $7.00 now. Optimal entry is gone now.
One stock on my watch list is JRJC with an entry of $14, immediate stop loss of maybe $2.00 at most with a target of $20-25 within a couple months. Another is MTG with a buy @$17 and target of $30.
If you want anymore you have to pay me. Just depends. Market is way oversold still but oversold can always become more oversold. I still see a likelyhood of Nasdaq 3100 by end of May at which time it's time to get the hell out until everyone realizes that yes things really do suck shit and stop buying so I can short the piss out of this market.
rsnoble-im-back
Banned
Angel said:
I'll take the opposite side of your trade. The bus travels faster with fewer passengers.
rsnoble-im-back
Banned
MightyMouse69 said:
Regarding your EMC:
No need to backtest, althought there is a gap @14.50. I don't think it will go there. Today is just a small pissing match, nothing to get concerned. Bullish divergence coming in, first target $19.15. After that I don't know right now.
rsnoble-im-back
Banned
75th said:
JPM chart set to breakout.
Whoever bought INTC----good pick. If you're at $30+ and Nasdaqs around 3k sometime around May---get the fuck out. I'm serious. And if your not and Nasdaqs still up there, get out anyway.
My play of the day was 500 shares of SPWR @$60.50. Already up $4+. My target is $200.00.
Things are different now in the markets, people get information fast and react fast. Thus more V patterns and such vs. rounded patterns. Everyone will still react the same but it will be instantaneous.
This week we hit historic precedents, concerning new number of lows, rally was to be expected. More records to come, '08 will be insane.
Coloring books are fun but that doesn't make you an artist. The market is more phycological than anything. I'm pretty much a nut, which anyone here already knows, and I seem to have fit right in.
JPM and USB and BAC have all been great icks for me
I enjoy the high dividends from Bank stocks and they are extremely low right now so it is a great time to buy.
90% of my stocks are bank stocks
Then i play around with some day trading in the tech sector. I was so glad Apple hit the skids I swooped in @ 126 and bought up a shitload. same with IBM last week before they rallied and made some money
I enjoy the high dividends from Bank stocks and they are extremely low right now so it is a great time to buy.
90% of my stocks are bank stocks
Then i play around with some day trading in the tech sector. I was so glad Apple hit the skids I swooped in @ 126 and bought up a shitload. same with IBM last week before they rallied and made some money
patsfan1379
New member
buy low
rsnoble-im-back
Banned
You guys watch your ass. Extreme volatility could be coming. We went from the end of the world monday to buy! buy! buy! today.
Too fast.
Use caution. There could be a another big downage coming rigged by the big boys to get that next rate cut next week.
You have 2 choices: Small positions and shut off CNBC or daytrade.
People are getting drunk too fast.
You never know, we could keep rising. Fast.
Basically: it's scarry right now. You have to bipolar.
Too fast.
Use caution. There could be a another big downage coming rigged by the big boys to get that next rate cut next week.
You have 2 choices: Small positions and shut off CNBC or daytrade.
People are getting drunk too fast.
You never know, we could keep rising. Fast.
Basically: it's scarry right now. You have to bipolar.
