personally, i never made any comments about who will win the war, but you can quote me on this - soon enough US forces will be running out of the cities for their dear lives.(after they are slowly picked off 1 by 1). why? lets analyze US popularity in iraq..we have
1. Sunnis-relatively most loyal to Saddam. most of who died are probably sunni, they will all have relatives killed by US
2. Shii- fundamentalist muslims, give them enogh time before they call jihad against us troops
3. Kurds - sorry, turns out after all, you cant have your state, we like Turkey better, but u still like us right (in fact u have to retreat now or we'll make you)
4. christians - the only thing keeping them alive in the middle of all the muslims was - SADDAM (was told this by ortodox christian iraqi who works with me, he's not too fond of saddam, but said Saddam was good to christians, and that 90% of muslims want to kill christians, also said the only thing that kept peace was a strong leadership figure)
Combine this with all the killings of civilians that will happen during the occupation, such as that van incident or REGULAR MISTAKE bombings such as this today in afganistan:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/2931297.stm
"The US military in Afghanistan says it has killed 11 Afghan civilians by mistake in an air attack. "
Conclusion=not too many happy iraqis+suicide bombings=US leaves iraq(maybe not oil fields).
US said they are there to stay, and i dont doubt they meant it, but only because of oil. Once they suffer enough casualties during the occupation, public opinion will prevail and they will be pulled out. The only thing that Iraqis are now free to do is loot useless crap from Saddam's regime, kill each other, and live in bombed out neighbourhoods. I already posted my prediction for post war iraq in one of "war sticky's" (based on post war kosovo), which is chaos, revenge killings, crimes, breeding for fundamentalist muslim terrorists (which saddam was afraid of and DIDNT support) clans& tribes at each others throats...
Now they are happy cause they can loot, may they cheer when they have 20 warlords instead of 1.