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Pats @ Jets - 2.5

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SNF - Patriots at Jets
November 13, 2011
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com Share

Two old rivals renew acquaintances on Sunday night as the Patriots battle the Jets in a key AFC East showdown. New England (5-3) has lost consecutive games for only the fourth time since 2002, as the Patriots are coming off back-to-back defeats to the Steelers and Giants. The Jets (5-3), meanwhile, are riding a three-game winning streak after losing at Gillette Stadium in Week 5.

The Patriots went through a taste of déjà-vu against the Giants last Sunday by allowing a late Eli Manning touchdown in the final minute. Manning's fade-pattern pass to Plaxico Burress ended New England's run at a 19-0 season in Super Bowl XLII, while the former Ole Miss star's touchdown toss to Jake Ballard with 15 seconds left gave the Pats their first home defeat of the season. The Patriots have failed to cover three consecutive games for the first time since 2009, as Bill Belichick's club has scored 20 points or less in each of the previous three contests.

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The Jets were rolling out of the gate after beating the Cowboys and Jaguars at home, but three consecutive road setbacks slowed down the momentum of Gang Green. Rex Ryan's crew has responded with home victories over the Dolphins and Chargers, while dominating the Bills in a sound 27-11 thumping in Orchard Park last Sunday. The Jets held the ball for nearly 38 minutes as Mark Sanchez threw for 230 yards and a touchdown, helping New York cash as a 2 ½-point underdog.

In the last meeting between these divisional rivals, the Patriots knocked off the Jets, 30-21 as 7 ½-point favorites on October 10. New England exacted a modicum of revenge from last season's divisional playoff loss to New York by receiving a pair of touchdown runs from BenJarvus Green-Ellis and a 321-yard passing effort from Tom Brady. The game sailed 'over' the total of 50 ½ thanks to a late Stephen Gostkowski field goal in the final minute, the fourth straight 'over' in the series.

These clubs have split six meetings since Ryan arrived on the Jets' sidelines in 2009, but New York is 2-0 SU/ATS in the two games in East Rutherford. The Jets won both times as a three-point home underdog, including a 28-14 triumph in Week 2 of last season. New York has responded well off a divisional game the last 11 instances by putting together a 9-2 ATS mark, coming off the Bills' victory. Ryan gets his players up for AFC East battles with an 8-3 ATS record within the division since November 2009.

Despite not being able to follow up the loss at Pittsburgh with another defeat to the Giants, New England owns a solid 21-8 ATS record since 2003 off a straight-up loss. This system is even tighter when the Pats play on the road off a defeat, going 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS in this span, with the lone loss coming at Miami in 2009.

From the totals standpoint, the Patriots have cashed the 'under' in four of the last five games, while the total has closed at 50 or above in each of the previous seven contests. The Jets are 5-3 to the 'over,' as New York has eclipsed the 24-point mark in all four home contests.

New York is listed as a favorite over New England for the first since 2002, as the Jets are laying 1 ½ points. The total is set at 47 ½ as the game will be televised nationally on NBC for an 8:30 PM EST kickoff.

You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at [email protected]
 
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