harman_2005 said:
With Gibbs in DC, Parcells in Dallas, Reid in Philly, and Coughling in NY, the NFC East will easily be the best-coached division on the NFL.
No more NFC Least.
Now, it'll be known as the NFC BEAST!!
Make Your Own Breaks
WITHOUT GOOD-TO-EXCELLENT anticipation skills, it’s hard to survive. Red light stop. Wait. Green light go. That’s anticipation in its simplest form. Everyone learns that lesson early.
In a more complex manner, that’s how sports works, and that’s how sports handicapping works.
Losers become winners. Winners become losers. That’s change. Losers lose by less than they did before, and winners win by less than they did before. That’s change, too.
Change can be measured in degrees, and on that scale, the Jacksonville Jaguars changed less than any other NFL team in the 1990s and early 2000s.
For eight years, the average Jacksonville season margin against the point-spread ranged from a low of –0.91, to a high of +1.77. That’s a low-to-high difference of only 2.68 points, less than a field goal, all of it treading along the line of a push! Coughlin’s Jags were an incredibly frustrating team to handicap, because they played so close to the number for so long. From their expansion year in 1995, through 2002, Jacksonville’s standard deviation of average spread margins was a miniscule 0.88, within that already mentioned narrow gap existing a hair below and a hair above the “zero” line. Picture it this way: They swam a straight course in a narrow lane in an eight-year marathon.
Since 1993, the standard deviation of annual average spread margins of the rest of the NFL ranged from Seattle’s 1.67 (twice as large) to 5.67 (St. Louis). Most of the teams had 10-year bases to help flatten out the numbers, while the Jags achieved their league-best in only eight years of existence.
They say that a team takes on the personality of its head coach, and Tom Coughlin, a Bill Parcells protégé, was the “only coach the Jaguars had ever had.” Just like Tom Landry was the “only head coach the Dallas Cowboys had ever had” prior to Jimmy Johnson’s arrival in 1989. Landry was a legend who had been to five Super Bowls and won two with the Cowboys. Johnson became an NFL legend who won every Super Bowl he went to. But in between the two in Dallas, there was a rough transition period.
NFL.com tells part of the story:
‘Despite arriving on the heels of one of the game's legends in Landry, Johnson made it clear from the outset that things were to be done his way.
‘Jimmy's training camps were extremely, extremely tough," Troy Aikman said. ‘When Jimmy came in, he changed everything compared to [what had always been done]. There was always the belief in the NFL that players couldn't hit that much [during camp], there couldn't be that much contact, that you had to take it easy.
‘Jimmy just dismissed all that. He did things the way he was accustomed to doing it at the collegiate level, the way he was successful. He didn't care how the NFL did it, he was going to do it the way he wanted to.’;;
The Cowboys were 1-15 in Johnson's first season. A lot of people remember two Super Bowl wins in his five years, yet forget about the 1-15, the transitional hitting of bottom that was necessary in order to shake out the dust from the Landry days, then clear a path for future success.
Tom Coughlin is not the living legend Landry was. Then again, he only had eight years in Jacksonville, not 28. But he ran a steady ship, and got the most out the available talent whether that talent was brand, spanking new in 1995, poised to compete for the ring in the later 1990s, or falling apart due to salary cap issues the last two seasons. With a 2002 team that Coughlin said didn’t have the talent of the 1995 expansion group, Coughlin’s average point-spread margin was +0.56, better than in the expansion year, and 14th best in a 32-team league. Jacksonville covered its first four games in 2002.
Jacksonville Jaguars Average Point-Spread Margin History
Team 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
JAX -0.25, 0.76, 0.44, 0.19, 1.77, -0.91, 1.53, 0.56, -6.00
‘I’ve never seen somebody who wants to win so badly as coach Coughlin,’ said All-Pro wide receiver Jimmy Smith, ‘but it carries over to us. And that’s what you need to get to the ultimate plateau.’ ‘If there is a guy that is responsible for our success here,’ said veteran QB Mark Brunell, ‘it’s obviously Tom.’
Coughlin laid the foundation for a winning team in Jacksonville by preaching discipline and hard work, to his players, and setting an example for them by having all the little details taken care of in his preparation. His tenacity and determination quickly turned a new franchise into the most successful expansion team in NFL history.
Coughin’s own words: ‘I have very high levels of expectations, and I think players need that. ‘Players want discipline; they want organization. We emphasize responsibility and accountability, and all the little things that help you win in the long run.’
In 1995, the Jaguars won four games, more than any previous expansion team in NFL history. In 1996, they went to the playoffs and advanced all the way to the AFC Championship game. In 1997, they won a then-team-record 11 games. In 1998 they won 11 more games, including their first division championship in addition to their first home playoff game. And in 1999 the Jaguars had the NFL’s best record, 14-2, and advanced to the AFC Championship game again. Then, the cap issues hit and they lost for two years. Then, the axe fell.
The system is DOWN!
Coughlin, and most of the people who worked for him including many players, have been out of the Jacksonville system now for four games. The Jacksonville system ain’t the same any more. Jack Del Rio runs it, with a lot of different players and coaches. After four games, they are 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS. The Jaguars’ average spread margin is six times worse than the 1999 all-time season-average ‘low’ of –0.91 under Coughlin. The Coughlin years didn’t produce any Super Bowls wins in Jacksonville, but the stamp was indelible as that incredible sequence of numbers above, even if it wasn’t apparent to the naked eye. And that sequence was bound to go nowhere but DOWN with the change at the top.