A 3 game winning streak is not a trend and a statistic??
A touchdown pass in the last x games is not a trend and a statistic?
4.5 Yards per carry is not a trend and a statistic?
15 yards per catch is not a trend and a statistic?
OK, Swole.. At this point you're not making much sense but I'll humor you
Let's talk about weather since Miami is a southern town and you'd think the dolphins would have an advantage playing in a downpour. Neither team could pass or run the ball in the first 3 quarters, correct??? So if weather was included as an advantage for Miami , then you were wrong.
Injuries don't necessarily mean that position will be lacking. Some team have backups that could be starters elsewhere. This is definitly one place where statistics are used such as tackles, forced fumbles, assists, sacks, hurries. Just to name a few on the defensive side of the ball. If statistics were used on a backup (who's stats won't be there because he's a backup) then you'd have an innaccurate view of that player. This was my main point. SInce I've studied the game and I've followed the players, I have a better view of how that team and player will play then a statistician.
As far as matchups go, if one team is favored because of a one on one matchup then I'd say the odds are definitly flawed. On defense this is why we play ZONE DEFENSE. We definily played off wide outs who were known to be murder.
On offense this is why we BLOCK running backs and Wide outs included. Dont let that lineman or DB get to the QB...Maybe that's why we did those blocking drills???
In Basketball I would agree that one guy can be murder. In football , that 's why coaches make adjustments. But you didn't mention coaching in your posts about why the odds are the way they are, so...
swole said:
A trend isn't a statistic; it's considered the general direction in which something is moving.
Sure, you can say something like "Tennesse has been really hot lately. They won their last x out of y games." This is when a trend is a statistic.
You made it sound like they base odds on stats, such as QB x has so and so passing yards per game while team y has the worst pass defense. Hence, a 3.5 point spread is applicable.
What I'm talking about is the way people bet and the resulting trends that dictate a line...such as situational matchups, injury reports, weather...and insider information.
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