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1/13 NFL Divisional Playoffs NY Giants @ Dallas

  • Thread starter Thread starter Spartacus
  • Start date Start date
It is only natural for a total to be inflated in a match up that has occurred already twice this season, and resulted in a 80 points showdown followed by a 51 point game. I will not pass up this opportunity to bet against an inflated line for a variety of reasons.

There has always been a saying in the NFL that it is hard to beat a team three times. This is not because of the underlying probability of accomplish such a task, but the underlying fundamentals behind it. Mainly, teams have a hard time establishing new game plans, as weaknesses exploited in the first two meetings are worked on, fixed, while teams are most familiar with what to expect and what went wrong. With weaknesses in the first two meetings predominantly coming on defense, expect both defensive units to shore up these deficiencies and find another avenue to exploit.

The Cowboys offense has seriously regressed since the first two meetings. Romo is not playing at the same level, while the injury to Owens can prove costly, as not only is production limited, but it should force Whitten and Crayton into more double coverage’s and limit their production. The Giants defensive line continues to get progressively better as well, making me think Romo will not have the time in the pocket that he received in their first two meetings. All this leads me to believe a heavier reliance on the running game is in the cards for the Cowboys this week, and fewer risks will be taken in the passing game. This will force the Cowboys to chip away at the field instead of moving the ball in big chunks in their first two meetings.

Manning is clearly establishing an upward trend, but if people have not learned by now, this level of play is never sustainable for Eli. Sunday is a good time for a drop off in productivity, as he faces a team heavily familiar with his weaknesses, and possesses the ideal pass rush and solid corners to give Manning and the Giants passing game problems. The return of Jacobs has changed the Giants into a more power offense, a change that will more than likely continue this week, as it will be up against the Cowboys least poignant defensive strength. When the Giants do have success on offense, much like the Jaguars, it comes at the expense of a lot of clock time. With the edge the Cowboys have in defending the pass, the Giants may become one dimensional and have problems finding the end zone. The result should be a drop-off in points compared to their first two meetings against the Cowboys.

Expect both defenses to shore up the weaknesses that occurred in their first two meetings that lead to two Overs. Combine this with the regression of Romo, injury to Owens, improved play of the Giants defense, and inconsistencies of Manning, and this game should not be as high scoring as the line indicates. I like the Under.
 
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