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Kentucky Derby analysis
By Ed McNamara
Special to ESPN.com
ACTION THIS DAY Trainer: Richard Mandella Jockey: David Flores
He's the quintessential one-hit wonder, having done nothing before or after winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at odds of 26-1. Has shown no speed and no closing kick at 3, finishing fourth, sixth and seventh. If you're superstitious, throw in the double-jinx factor, as no Juvenile winner has won the Derby and no 2-year-old champion has done it since Spectacular Bid in 1979. Throw him out.
BIRDSTONE Trainer: Nick Zito Jockey: Edgar Prado
Looked like a potential star after winning the Champagne Stakes last fall but has had problems this season. I could forgive his dud against a weak group in the Lane's End at Turfway March 20, but he hasn't raced since. Although his sire, Grindstone, and grandsire Unbridled won the Derby, I doubt very much if he'll do the same. He'll be off the board.
BORREGO Trainer: Beau Greely Jockey: Victor Espinoza
He's a plodder, and those types almost never win the Derby. He's 1-for-4 on dirt since running his first three career races on turf, and he was no star there, either. Only main-track win was in an optional claimer at 1 1/16 miles at Santa Anita in January. I think he has a good chance to inflate the price of the superfecta while having little or no chance to win. An exotics play only.
CASTLEDALE Trainer: Jeff Mullins Jockey: Jose Valdivia
Pint-sized Irish-bred jumped up to win the Santa Anita Derby at 30-1 odds in only his second start on dirt. Lost a considerable amount of weight after that race, but a strong workout last weekend persuaded his connections to go to Louisville. Has plenty of turf stamina on both sides of his pedigree. Is he a wild card at a big price again, or is he Mullins' second coming of Buddy Gil? That horse upset the Santa Anita Derby last year, then was nowhere at Churchill. Rarely runs a bad one, and certainly isn't the worst stab. Not on my short list of likely winners, but not impossible. At 10-1 or better, he's worth considering.
EDDINGTON Trainer: Mark Hennig Jockey: TBA
Long-striding, beautiful colt has one of the best distance pedigrees in the field (by Unbridled out of a Chief's Crown mare) but as of Monday he needed one more defection to make the race. Had a wide, odd trip in the Wood and missed second by a nose after coming on again late. Bailey wanted to re-ride him even after committing to Wimbledon. Looks like the type that could win the Derby if he puts it all together on the day, and many Derby winners fit that profile. Working strongly at Belmont Park. Can win if he gets in.
FRIENDS LAKE Trainer: John Kimmel Jockey: Richard Migliore
High-strung colt needs lots of time between races, so Kimmel chose to rest him after he won the Florida Derby off an eight-week break. To become the second consecutive New York-bred to get the roses, he'll have to be the first Derby winner not to run in April since Needles in 1956. The Florida Derby has turned out to be a key race, with also-rans The Cliff's Edge and Tapit winning the Blue Grass and Wood, respectively. Still, the combination of a difficult temperament and a long layoff makes me say no.
IMPERIALISM Trainer: Kristin Mulhall Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Will make his 16th start Saturday, so he's the most experienced horse in the Derby, if nothing else. Mulhall, 21, will be the youngest ever to saddle a Derby runner, and she's had remarkable success the past year. Ran down Lion Heart and the very quick Hosco to upset 7-furlong and mile stakes at odds of 14-1 and 7-1. Was weakening when bothered in deep stretch of the Santa Anita Derby, and I think he's at his best at 1 1/16 miles, tops. Closing sprinter/miler types don't get the job done in the Derby.
LIMEHOUSE Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Jose Santos
Pletcher annually churns out many of these types, who are brilliant in 2-year-old sprints and competitive until the distances get past a mile and a sixteenth. Does his best work stalking from up close at shorter distances, and he's 1-for-3 beyond a mile, all in stakes. Has lots of class and always runs hard, but I think he'll be packing it in approaching the eighth pole, if not earlier.
LION HEART Trainer: Patrick Biancone Jockey: Mike Smith
As long as he breaks well, he's clearly the controlling speed, and he's never been worse than second in five starts. When front-runners Sinister G and Value Plus were in the field, Lion Heart looked like a certain pace casualty. With them out of the race, Lion Heart might get loose in reasonable fractions if the riders of Smarty Jones, Pollard's Vision and Quintons Gold Rush choose to stay two or three lengths behind him. Could lead for a long way, but is likely to come back to the field anyway because he runs hard and has a miler's pedigree. Yet nobody thought War Emblem would wire the 2002 Derby, either. If you can get 5-1 or so, at least you can be confident you'll be in front entering the stretch. Not getting that much attention and may be a slight overlay. If Smarty Jones doesn't fire and the better closers find traffic trouble, Lion Heart might hang on and gasp home first.
MASTER DAVID Trainer: Bobby Frankel Jockey: Alex Solis
Former European has quality and stamina but lacks a big turn of foot, the type of burst that often blows open the Derby on the far turn or entering the stretch. Never off the board in four main-track races and will be running on late while most of the field fades. I think he's a must for any exotic bets. I don't think he'll win, but he won't be far back from whoever does.
MINISTER ERIC Trainer: Richard Mandella Jockey: Pat Day
Handsome colt might win the beauty contest but not the race. His claim to fame is a clunk-up, non-threatening second to stablemate Action This Day in the Juvenile. Just won a non-winners-of-1 allowance over a nothing field at Keeneland, not usually a ticket to the Derby. He's never won a stakes and never even tried 1 1/8 miles, so expecting him to do well at 1¼ is silly. Forget him.
POLLARD'S VISION Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: John Velazquez
He's by sprint sire Carson City, so it was a surprise he won the 1 1/8-mile Illinois Derby, even against a weak field. Pletcher and Velazquez are tremendous talents and eventually will win a Derby together, but not with this guy. Could have a major impact if he runs hard with Lion Heart early, but I think Velazquez will nurse him along and try to milk his questionable stamina as far as he can. Off the board.
PRO PRADO Trainer: Bob Holthus Jockey: John McKee
Holthus' only previous entries in the Derby were in 1972 and 1988, so like clockwork, 16 years later, he's back again. He's 0-for-4 at a mile or longer and has never won past 6½ furlongs, so why is he trying 10 furlongs? Couldn't do better than a no-chance third despite a golden trip in the Arkansas Derby. Might get third or fourth at 50-1 if everything breaks his way again and most of the better runners get cooked or lack running room. That's not much of an endorsement. Ignore him.
QUINTONS GOLD RUSH Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: TBA
Made a big move forward in the Lexington, drawing off with ease and registering a career-best speed figure. Didn't beat much there, but he always tries and has tactical speed, a fine asset to avoid trouble in a huge field. Tries to repeat the pattern of Charismatic, who ran fourth in the 1999 Santa Anita Derby before dominating the Lexington and taking the Kentucky Derby at huge odds. This guy will be a big price and worth considering. Had a hard trip battling on the lead when fourth in the Santa Anita Derby. Worries for Saturday: being too close to a likely fast pace and bouncing in his third race in four weeks. Without a few negatives, though, you never get a big price. I'm keeping him in mind because of the risk/reward angle.
READ THE FOOTNOTES Trainer: Richard Violette Jockey: Robby Albarado
Like Friends Lake, he's a New York-bred with good credentials who hasn't run since mid-March. If you're willing to accept the layoff angle, do you choose this guy or the other one? I'm inclined not to play either and will salute any trainer who wins the Derby off a long break. Read The Footnotes has tactical speed, a win at 1 1/8 miles and 2-year-old seasoning, so he wouldn't be a big shock if he won. I just don't like the long layoff and I'll try to beat him.
ROCK HARD TEN Trainer: Jason Orman Jockey: TBA
Magnificent-looking specimen needed two defections as of Monday to get into the Derby. Besides that problem, he didn't make his career debut until Feb. 7, and no Derby winner has been unraced at 2 since Apollo in 1882. In the long run, he'll be better off if he doesn't run 1¼ miles in top company less than three months after his first race. Even if he gets in, I'll pass on him.
SMARTY JONES Trainer: John Servis Jockey: Stewart Elliott
This Pennsylvania-bred from Philly Park is this year's version of Funny Cide, and he has a good chance to repeat the New York-bred's feat. He's unbeaten and untested, and his 5-furlong work in 58 seconds Saturday at Churchill was fantastic. His pedigree says 1¼ miles should be a stretch, and his competition has been weaker than any other top contender. Wasn't drawing off at the end of the Arkansas Derby, and maybe that signals the Derby's final furlong could find him out. Respect, and if he's 9-2 or better, he's very playable.
SONG OF THE SWORD Trainer: Jennifer Pedersen Jockey: Norberto Arroyo
Had trouble when second in the Illinois Derby and third in the Lexington but was no factor at the end of either. Gives the impression he wants shorter distances and Grade II or III company, not a Grade I at 10 furlongs. Hasn't won past a mile and 70 yards and 0-for-2 in stakes. Only chance would be a third or fourth at huge odds after a perfect trip.
TAPIT Trainer: Michael Dickinson Jockey: Ramon Dominguez
If anyone can win the Derby off only four career starts, it's the "Mad Genius," Dickinson. Like Lion Heart, he'll make only his third 3-year-old start Saturday, and it's been 21 years since the Derby winner (Sunny's Halo) had that profile. Not since 1918 has the Derby winner had only four previous starts. Dickinson has been a miracle worker throughout his career, but he's asking a lot of this horse. If he's 8-1 or better, maybe he's worth a shot, but I doubt if he'll be that good a price. I won't be playing him.
THE CLIFF'S EDGE Trainer: Nick Zito Jockey: Shane Sellers
After his gigantic move forward in the Blue Grass, he'll most likely be favored, partly because Zito is a fan favorite who has won the Derby twice. This colt is 2-for-2 at Churchill and has the biggest speed figure, so he could be 4-1 or so, which is no bargain. Of the last 12 Derby winners, only Charismatic, Fusaichi Pegasus and War Emblem won his final prep, so I'm a bit wary of jumping on the "Cliffie" bandwagon. Certainly would be no shock, but I'm concerned he might regress off a career top.
Kentucky Derby analysis
By Ed McNamara
Special to ESPN.com
ACTION THIS DAY Trainer: Richard Mandella Jockey: David Flores
He's the quintessential one-hit wonder, having done nothing before or after winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at odds of 26-1. Has shown no speed and no closing kick at 3, finishing fourth, sixth and seventh. If you're superstitious, throw in the double-jinx factor, as no Juvenile winner has won the Derby and no 2-year-old champion has done it since Spectacular Bid in 1979. Throw him out.
BIRDSTONE Trainer: Nick Zito Jockey: Edgar Prado
Looked like a potential star after winning the Champagne Stakes last fall but has had problems this season. I could forgive his dud against a weak group in the Lane's End at Turfway March 20, but he hasn't raced since. Although his sire, Grindstone, and grandsire Unbridled won the Derby, I doubt very much if he'll do the same. He'll be off the board.
BORREGO Trainer: Beau Greely Jockey: Victor Espinoza
He's a plodder, and those types almost never win the Derby. He's 1-for-4 on dirt since running his first three career races on turf, and he was no star there, either. Only main-track win was in an optional claimer at 1 1/16 miles at Santa Anita in January. I think he has a good chance to inflate the price of the superfecta while having little or no chance to win. An exotics play only.
CASTLEDALE Trainer: Jeff Mullins Jockey: Jose Valdivia
Pint-sized Irish-bred jumped up to win the Santa Anita Derby at 30-1 odds in only his second start on dirt. Lost a considerable amount of weight after that race, but a strong workout last weekend persuaded his connections to go to Louisville. Has plenty of turf stamina on both sides of his pedigree. Is he a wild card at a big price again, or is he Mullins' second coming of Buddy Gil? That horse upset the Santa Anita Derby last year, then was nowhere at Churchill. Rarely runs a bad one, and certainly isn't the worst stab. Not on my short list of likely winners, but not impossible. At 10-1 or better, he's worth considering.
EDDINGTON Trainer: Mark Hennig Jockey: TBA
Long-striding, beautiful colt has one of the best distance pedigrees in the field (by Unbridled out of a Chief's Crown mare) but as of Monday he needed one more defection to make the race. Had a wide, odd trip in the Wood and missed second by a nose after coming on again late. Bailey wanted to re-ride him even after committing to Wimbledon. Looks like the type that could win the Derby if he puts it all together on the day, and many Derby winners fit that profile. Working strongly at Belmont Park. Can win if he gets in.
FRIENDS LAKE Trainer: John Kimmel Jockey: Richard Migliore
High-strung colt needs lots of time between races, so Kimmel chose to rest him after he won the Florida Derby off an eight-week break. To become the second consecutive New York-bred to get the roses, he'll have to be the first Derby winner not to run in April since Needles in 1956. The Florida Derby has turned out to be a key race, with also-rans The Cliff's Edge and Tapit winning the Blue Grass and Wood, respectively. Still, the combination of a difficult temperament and a long layoff makes me say no.
IMPERIALISM Trainer: Kristin Mulhall Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Will make his 16th start Saturday, so he's the most experienced horse in the Derby, if nothing else. Mulhall, 21, will be the youngest ever to saddle a Derby runner, and she's had remarkable success the past year. Ran down Lion Heart and the very quick Hosco to upset 7-furlong and mile stakes at odds of 14-1 and 7-1. Was weakening when bothered in deep stretch of the Santa Anita Derby, and I think he's at his best at 1 1/16 miles, tops. Closing sprinter/miler types don't get the job done in the Derby.
LIMEHOUSE Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Jose Santos
Pletcher annually churns out many of these types, who are brilliant in 2-year-old sprints and competitive until the distances get past a mile and a sixteenth. Does his best work stalking from up close at shorter distances, and he's 1-for-3 beyond a mile, all in stakes. Has lots of class and always runs hard, but I think he'll be packing it in approaching the eighth pole, if not earlier.
LION HEART Trainer: Patrick Biancone Jockey: Mike Smith
As long as he breaks well, he's clearly the controlling speed, and he's never been worse than second in five starts. When front-runners Sinister G and Value Plus were in the field, Lion Heart looked like a certain pace casualty. With them out of the race, Lion Heart might get loose in reasonable fractions if the riders of Smarty Jones, Pollard's Vision and Quintons Gold Rush choose to stay two or three lengths behind him. Could lead for a long way, but is likely to come back to the field anyway because he runs hard and has a miler's pedigree. Yet nobody thought War Emblem would wire the 2002 Derby, either. If you can get 5-1 or so, at least you can be confident you'll be in front entering the stretch. Not getting that much attention and may be a slight overlay. If Smarty Jones doesn't fire and the better closers find traffic trouble, Lion Heart might hang on and gasp home first.
MASTER DAVID Trainer: Bobby Frankel Jockey: Alex Solis
Former European has quality and stamina but lacks a big turn of foot, the type of burst that often blows open the Derby on the far turn or entering the stretch. Never off the board in four main-track races and will be running on late while most of the field fades. I think he's a must for any exotic bets. I don't think he'll win, but he won't be far back from whoever does.
MINISTER ERIC Trainer: Richard Mandella Jockey: Pat Day
Handsome colt might win the beauty contest but not the race. His claim to fame is a clunk-up, non-threatening second to stablemate Action This Day in the Juvenile. Just won a non-winners-of-1 allowance over a nothing field at Keeneland, not usually a ticket to the Derby. He's never won a stakes and never even tried 1 1/8 miles, so expecting him to do well at 1¼ is silly. Forget him.
POLLARD'S VISION Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: John Velazquez
He's by sprint sire Carson City, so it was a surprise he won the 1 1/8-mile Illinois Derby, even against a weak field. Pletcher and Velazquez are tremendous talents and eventually will win a Derby together, but not with this guy. Could have a major impact if he runs hard with Lion Heart early, but I think Velazquez will nurse him along and try to milk his questionable stamina as far as he can. Off the board.
PRO PRADO Trainer: Bob Holthus Jockey: John McKee
Holthus' only previous entries in the Derby were in 1972 and 1988, so like clockwork, 16 years later, he's back again. He's 0-for-4 at a mile or longer and has never won past 6½ furlongs, so why is he trying 10 furlongs? Couldn't do better than a no-chance third despite a golden trip in the Arkansas Derby. Might get third or fourth at 50-1 if everything breaks his way again and most of the better runners get cooked or lack running room. That's not much of an endorsement. Ignore him.
QUINTONS GOLD RUSH Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: TBA
Made a big move forward in the Lexington, drawing off with ease and registering a career-best speed figure. Didn't beat much there, but he always tries and has tactical speed, a fine asset to avoid trouble in a huge field. Tries to repeat the pattern of Charismatic, who ran fourth in the 1999 Santa Anita Derby before dominating the Lexington and taking the Kentucky Derby at huge odds. This guy will be a big price and worth considering. Had a hard trip battling on the lead when fourth in the Santa Anita Derby. Worries for Saturday: being too close to a likely fast pace and bouncing in his third race in four weeks. Without a few negatives, though, you never get a big price. I'm keeping him in mind because of the risk/reward angle.
READ THE FOOTNOTES Trainer: Richard Violette Jockey: Robby Albarado
Like Friends Lake, he's a New York-bred with good credentials who hasn't run since mid-March. If you're willing to accept the layoff angle, do you choose this guy or the other one? I'm inclined not to play either and will salute any trainer who wins the Derby off a long break. Read The Footnotes has tactical speed, a win at 1 1/8 miles and 2-year-old seasoning, so he wouldn't be a big shock if he won. I just don't like the long layoff and I'll try to beat him.
ROCK HARD TEN Trainer: Jason Orman Jockey: TBA
Magnificent-looking specimen needed two defections as of Monday to get into the Derby. Besides that problem, he didn't make his career debut until Feb. 7, and no Derby winner has been unraced at 2 since Apollo in 1882. In the long run, he'll be better off if he doesn't run 1¼ miles in top company less than three months after his first race. Even if he gets in, I'll pass on him.
SMARTY JONES Trainer: John Servis Jockey: Stewart Elliott
This Pennsylvania-bred from Philly Park is this year's version of Funny Cide, and he has a good chance to repeat the New York-bred's feat. He's unbeaten and untested, and his 5-furlong work in 58 seconds Saturday at Churchill was fantastic. His pedigree says 1¼ miles should be a stretch, and his competition has been weaker than any other top contender. Wasn't drawing off at the end of the Arkansas Derby, and maybe that signals the Derby's final furlong could find him out. Respect, and if he's 9-2 or better, he's very playable.
SONG OF THE SWORD Trainer: Jennifer Pedersen Jockey: Norberto Arroyo
Had trouble when second in the Illinois Derby and third in the Lexington but was no factor at the end of either. Gives the impression he wants shorter distances and Grade II or III company, not a Grade I at 10 furlongs. Hasn't won past a mile and 70 yards and 0-for-2 in stakes. Only chance would be a third or fourth at huge odds after a perfect trip.
TAPIT Trainer: Michael Dickinson Jockey: Ramon Dominguez
If anyone can win the Derby off only four career starts, it's the "Mad Genius," Dickinson. Like Lion Heart, he'll make only his third 3-year-old start Saturday, and it's been 21 years since the Derby winner (Sunny's Halo) had that profile. Not since 1918 has the Derby winner had only four previous starts. Dickinson has been a miracle worker throughout his career, but he's asking a lot of this horse. If he's 8-1 or better, maybe he's worth a shot, but I doubt if he'll be that good a price. I won't be playing him.
THE CLIFF'S EDGE Trainer: Nick Zito Jockey: Shane Sellers
After his gigantic move forward in the Blue Grass, he'll most likely be favored, partly because Zito is a fan favorite who has won the Derby twice. This colt is 2-for-2 at Churchill and has the biggest speed figure, so he could be 4-1 or so, which is no bargain. Of the last 12 Derby winners, only Charismatic, Fusaichi Pegasus and War Emblem won his final prep, so I'm a bit wary of jumping on the "Cliffie" bandwagon. Certainly would be no shock, but I'm concerned he might regress off a career top.
