How do Vegas bookie markets work?

[bran987]

Who actually sets those odds? I assume it's market? People bid/ask different point spreads and it eventually settles on an equilibrium that's published by some sort of dealer at a central point who sends it to the AP or something?

Also, who are the people who set the odds? Where do they find them? Anyone know the back story on the whole thing?

 

[perkele]

PM Hammy.

 

[Testosterone boy]

Great question for 99% of us to know.

 

[alexmichael]

Who actually sets those odds? I assume it's market? People bid/ask different point spreads and it eventually settles on an equilibrium that's published by some sort of dealer at a central point who sends it to the AP or something?

Also, who are the people who set the odds? Where do they find them? Anyone know the back story on the whole thing?

Here's how it works. There is a small group of guys in Vegas who set the initial opening line. They base this line on what they think will be the right number to attract the same amount of action on both sides. This line then gets put out to a select group of bettors that get to bet on it before the public even gets a crack at it. This is done just to "sharpen up" the line. It used to be the Stardust in Vegas that was the first to put the lines up on the games and the others quickly followed. Nowadays with so much focus (and money) on the offshore sites, computers and what they call "steam" steers the point spread after it is put out. "Steam" is what they called the games that were picked by some guys using computers and had a big budget and access to all kinds of information back in the early 90's. If they picked a game and bet on it, the would cause enough action to be placed on one side to move the game 2-3 points and sometimes as much as 7 points. They were hot for a while and won a lot of money. I have personally sat in an offshore office and watched their phone ring from one of their "steam" players and he would place a small bet (that's all they would allow him because he won more than he lost) and as soon as he made his bet they would adjust their line and within 1 to 2 minutes their computer would beep to tell them that the line was moving. Of course they had already adjusted their line based on his play. They showed me his history and he had won $127,000+ that year and they had him down to a $300 limit at that point. This was also in early 1997. They would have just cut him off except they used him to move their lines before anyone else got a hold of the "steam game" for that day or night. That one or two minutes was crucial to them because it probably prevented thousands of dollars being wagered before they could move their line. I was actually thinking about going down there and opening my own site back then but they were arresting U. S. citizens when they entered the country for operating these sites or issuing warrants for them when they decided to stay in Antigua or Costa Rica. This site was making $1,000,000 per month back then. My friend that owned it ended up going to jail on gambling charges and I fell out of touch with him. The site was and still is caribsports.com

With all of this said I think it is tougher than ever to handicap the games and beat the bookies. I know you are going to say, hang on, we now have computers to analyze the teams, instant access to all kinds of information etc. Why is it harder to beat the bookies than before all of this information and technology became available to the masses? It used to be (back in the 70's, 80's) that there was a lot less information that the public had access to. There was also a lot less places for them to make a wager. Back then the lines were really steered by the general public and they always liked to bet on teams like the Raiders (Stabler), Cowboys(Staubach) and Steelers(Bradshaw and company). The bookies would take advantage of this by making the lines 3 or 4 points higher than they should have been by just computing the two teams strengths, home field, injuries and weather. Most people also only had their local home town bookie to place a bet with and the bookie would know who the guy was going to bet before he even placed the bet 9 out of 10 times. Don't think for a second this didn't affect the line the guy was getting on the game. Today the general public has 24 hour access to all kinds of information including all I said above plus the computer rankings, strength of schedule etc. What this means is the line is now more than ever driven by the matchups and what the final outcome should be based on all of the factors. A long time ago you could take advantage of the ignorance of the general public and bet accordingly. The single biggest advantage you will find today is the "specials" that most of the sites offer. Some of them will give you an extra half point on your favorite team all year. Others will offer $1.02 specials on games if you bet early in the week compared with the usual $1.10 juice they charge. If you actually want to try and win a little money at this instead of having fun and betting on your favorite teams, you have to go out and find several places to bet and use the most favorable line you can find and try and lay as little juice as possible. If you are using a local guy, I can tell you many ways to beat him if you are patient, stay focused (and have a bankroll), and he isn't really sharp himself. Even if the guy is fairly sharp but maybe a little lazy- or greedy, there are ways to make a little money from him.

 

[Spartacus]

what alex said nailed it
though personally I don't find much use for computer power rankings
just knowing that "they" use them as a starting point before establishing the spread is what I need to know from them
back in the 80s when I bet regular and did some campus booking I could figure the NFL spreads pretty damn good before I saw them on tuesday

 

[Gambino]

good post alex

were the steam players orgainized crime members/associates?

 

[alexmichael]

good post alex

were the steam players orgainized crime members/associates?

No. It was a group of guys that were supposedly using a very sophisticated computer program to handicap. They were supposedly out of California. I'm sure as it progressed the group kept getting bigger and bigger (or as soon as they made their bets more people bet on the same team or total-hence building up "steam".

 

[Gambino]

No. It was a group of guys that were supposedly using a very sophisticated computer program to handicap. They were supposedly out of California. I'm sure as it progressed the group kept getting bigger and bigger (or as soon as they made their bets more people bet on the same team or total-hence building up "steam".

was it legal?
did they tamper with the players in anyway?
they were proly feared by every bookie across the usa

in your opinion, did the internet crush the old school wiseguy bookie?
i don't see the point anymore to using a bookie with all the online gambling

 

[swole]

do these vegas people have guys who work around popular teams? i mean guys who know how tough of a week notre dame's qb is having or if the starting RB for new england's dog died, shit like that

 

[Gambino]

up for alex