Carb spill over in a true clinical sense would only happen in a Type I diabetic with poor glycemic control, or Type II diabetic that is insulin resistant, in which case blood glucose rises because there is no uptake of glucose by the liver or muscle (i.e., spilling over into the blood).
In BBs, carb spill over is really not a correct way to assess what they observe as a function of carb intake as it doesn't spill over into the blood long-term.
From a BBs perspective, what is fat is hoped to be water (i.e., if you failed to prepare properly for a show and think you're holding water when you're really just fat), or what is thought to be fat from a one day carb load but is really only water.
In reality, it is pretty hard to convert carbs into fat. You have to eat about an extra 500 grams a day for a while to start significant de novo lipogenesis. However, only a small amount of carbs will prevent you from burning fat which is generally the case with most on this board. They think the carbs are making them fat when the reality is that the carbs are preventing them from losing fat.
Anyhow, the softening from carb intake takes a little time. The process begins with the increase in insulin that potentiates sodium retention and then water follows.
One of the reasons a competitor looks better in the evening from a high carb lunch following prejudging is that the carbs and water are in the muscle, but there has not been time for the water to get sc.
Usually the next day they look full but a little smoother.
Lastly, everyone is different.
The "too much" issue has more to do with a temporal effect (eating 300 grams of carbs over 24 hrs) in my opinion vs a simply issue quantity of carbs (eating 300 grams in several hours). The resulting appearance is likely to be different from the same amount of carbs.
Perhaps MS can comment on this.
W6