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Any investors out there...

T

thermo

New member
What do you think about the K-Mart stock right now? With all the financial trouble and talk of bankruptcy its down to around $1.50 per share. The CEO was demoted, but is still on the board, and the CFO is working with various institutions/banks, etc, to work something out. They are claiming they will not go bankrupt, and have priorities to get this place back to where it once was.

I remember a few years back, 2 or 3, maybe more when they got themselves into a financial rut. The stocked dropped significantly, then it shot back up after a while and paid off fairly nice.

Anyway, im curious to hear about your investments/portfolios. Maybe some strategies or opinions on K-mart. Ive been investing for a while, like to hear about others cash at work.
 
I don't know, the last few trips I've made to Kmart have been less than pleasant to say the least. I don't know how much longer they will last. at $1.50 a pop, it's not that big of a gamble though. Right now, if I were going to drop some coin on stock, which I 'm still waiting to see what the market is going to do over the next few months, I'd buy Oracle when it dips below 13 and Disney under 20, which both have and will do again. Some inexpensive energy companies who consistantly meet their numbers are CHK, ROIL, TMR, SPE, and CPN. I'd actually like to hear some more tips now too...
 
I think KM would be a good buy, I just checked and it's at 1.68. If that company gets into much more trouble it will surely be bought out, I don't see it falling off of the NYSE.

I bought up some Enron cheap a couple of months ago at .75, but now it is off the NYSE. I think even it will come back to a few dollars eventually.

I like airlines right now too, they are very low, and surely will be back some day. I have AWA and UAL in my portfolio.
 
The bulk of my investments go to aggresive, long term growth through domestic equity. Compound intrest is a beautiful thing. Real estate is the kind too. Milking these cows like moo.
Off to lunch.
 
Discount retailers as a whole were supposed to do good this year due to the shook up economy. That company must need some serious restructuring if it does bad then. Target seems to be the best company in that industry.
 
They are filing for bankruptcy. They have no way out of their leases which are killing the bottom line. They need a couple weeks to negotiate with banks before they file.

They are closing 250 Stores....with talks of another 200 after. Sadly, closing stores costs a lot of money too. Unless some other company like TarGAY takes over their leases, this will kill any cash position KM has.

Chuck was not demoted, he gave up his Chairman position. Schwartz was fired because he was a cocksucker.

Funny...Scwartz was tight with Walmart. It would make a great novel if Schwartz came to KM to fuck them over. Walmart has one of their best years ever while Schwartz runs KM into the ground by screwing with the corporate structure.

Wait till after the file, close stores, then buy in. They can never be a 2100 store chain, but they would make a great 1600 store chain once they boot their losers.

Avici will be a great stock by December. Their routers are far better than Cisco's and Avici's is the only one that can be adapted to other systems. Companies do not have to replace an entire system if they use Avici's routers. Hell, they have like $4 per share in cash alone.
 
thermo..I hope you did not buy KM.

They filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy this morning.

It's 80 cents a share and dropping
 
I can't see KMart disappearing from the American Landscape. It will surely be bought out by a competitor, and the name will survive. Who knows when the best time to gobble up stock will be, but it will surely get back up over 10 bucks someday.
 
Why not? Bradlees a similiar store went bankrupt and is now gone as well. Kmart has had problems for a while. and the market for this type of store atleast in my Area is saturated leaving a slim chance of wal mart or target byying them out. Things I have heard about the stores are that the help sucks and the places are dirty. Plus the over all quality of Target is somewhat higher in terms of their standards and the like. If K mark goes bankrupt and the selling of their stock is stopped all you will have is a nice amount of wall paper. Things dont look like they will be getting better anytime soon but if u wanna try to buy some call options on the stock to limit your total amount of risk try that. That way u wont loose as much...Kev

ttlpkg said:
I can't see KMart disappearing from the American Landscape. It will surely be bought out by a competitor, and the name will survive. Who knows when the best time to gobble up stock will be, but it will surely get back up over 10 bucks someday.
Click to expand...
 
Just the sheer size of the customer base alone is worth a buyout by a competitor in my opinion. Bradlees did not have the name-recognition of Kmart. (I've never heard of them).

Come Christmas shopping time, folks will look to spend money at Kmart.
 
ttlpkg said:
I can't see KMart disappearing from the American Landscape. It will surely be bought out by a competitor, and the name will survive. Who knows when the best time to gobble up stock will be, but it will surely get back up over 10 bucks someday.
Click to expand...

Bradlees...Ames...Kresge....Montgomery Ward...many of them are long long gone.

Km has $1.5 Billion in debt and have over 300 stores losing money everyday...they are toast.

They already went thru the period of looking for a buyout and no one was willing to take on the debt load. Fleming and some company from France both backed out.
 
ttlpkg said:
Come Christmas shopping time, folks will look to spend money at Kmart.
Click to expand...

Umm....no..

Check K-marts Christmas sales for 2001 and see if you still feel this way.

When KM suppliers no longer stock shelves..what is there to buy? Those KM shoppers will go to WalMart or TarGAY
instead
 
There is no point in buying stocks that are under $10.00 if they are falling and continue to fall the NYSE board has a choice to make. In Enron's case, they took the stock off the floor, those who own it are screwed. You won't get your money back no matter how badly you wish it to. K-Mart is not worth the investment. With the recent declaration of Chapter 11, it may seem like a good buy. But I say wait for it to make a stable base and ceiling, and then wait for it to break through that ceiling and make another leveling. Make sure the stock you buy is one with growth potential. Not one that the CEO hopes will grow. They have a tough road ahead of them, saying they will be out of Chapter 11 by 2003. 300 million less in debt's, that does not really sound like a good buy to me.


And don't hold a stock that has shown continous loss, wishing that it will rise once again. That's a foolish waste of your money.

~p~
 
ttlpkg said:
So have Walmart and Target so dominated the market that all other large scale non-mall retailers are going to die?
Click to expand...


In a way...yes.....watch other retailers die a slow death this year.
 
gotmilk said:



In a way...yes.....watch other retailers die a slow death this year.
Click to expand...

Call me stubborn (you wouldn't be the first), but in a competitive market of Target vs Walmart, one might get an edge over the other with selective buyouts of these other failed retailers. Especially if they have enough cash to absorb the upfront debt and leverage the name recognition.

I can see it now (under new ownership)

"Attention Kmart Shoppers..."

That little slogan alone is worth $$$$$$$$$$$$$$
 
ttp...why absorb $1.5 Billion in debt? WalMart and Target are fighting for Martha Stewart right now. You do not have to pay cover K-mart's $1.5 Billion when you now have access to the same distributors and products as Kmart

Kmart will not be able to stock their shelves properly....people need a place to shop...Kmart shoppers will switch to WalMart or Target once K-mart shelves become empty...without having to cough up $1.5 Billion anyhow.
 
Sam Walton is laughing his ass off right about...NOW!

I see Wal-Mart standing alone in as little as 2-3 years, but most likely 10-15...
 
If you are looking for a good cheap stock with promise---look at Raindance telecommunications. symbol is rndc

trades at around 5.60.

check it out.

they do alot of Web conferencing---many companies are turning to them to cut down on airline travel and to cut travel costs.
 
I will have to agree with the already posted buyout theory. Worst come to worst, someone will take them over and probably make you some $$$. Besides, buy 1,000 shares for $800, lose it all, who cares? Make $9200 if it goes back to $10 per share, Rock On!
 
ttlpkg: I agree, and that's why we need to keep the GOP, although they're not even conservative enough for me anymore, in office for as long as possible!!
 
If the stock drops below $1.00 for 30 days they are delisting it. If it goes bankrupt and the stocks not being traded and it takes 3 years for it to come up thats 3 years for your money to be sitting there making no interest while the same time inflation is increasing our cost of living. So even in 3 or 4 years you make back your original investment, its a loss because of spent transaction costs and inflation lowers its actual buying power..
Kev
 
secret stock tip.

by lots of


"woolworth" stock yea thats the ticket.

actually it's too late really.


we all should have bought Target and Wal Mart as soon as Bankruptcy was filed by K Mart.

And promtley sold the stocks when they hit their cieling.

although I think Taget will dominate in a couple of years
 
BuggyWhips said:
If the stock drops below $1.00 for 30 days they are delisting it. If it goes bankrupt and the stocks not being traded and it takes 3 years for it to come up thats 3 years for your money to be sitting there making no interest while the same time inflation is increasing our cost of living. So even in 3 or 4 years you make back your original investment, its a loss because of spent transaction costs and inflation lowers its actual buying power..
Kev
Click to expand...

Inflation is virtually non-existent in our economy. I am paying less for a gallon of gas now than I did when I was in college twenty years ago. That may change someday, but not in the next couple of years.

For my money, it is always a risk to buy stocks, and I think KM is worth risking a few hundred right now. I will reassess, but I plan to spend my monthly investment on KM come Feb 1st. By then we will know a little more.

I did the same thing with Enron, bought a few hundred at .70 or so. I may lose that few hundred forever, or I will gain big if it survives and climbs back over a few bucks.
 
ttlpkg said:


If the Democrats get re-elected they might try to break Walmart up a-la Microsoft.
Click to expand...

that's exactly right......it's time the anti-trust laws are upheld.

As for K-Mart, they've filed chpt 11 bankruptcy....business reorganization which is still very often a long shot toward recovery....I wouldn't touch k-mart with my investment dollars, unless you want to get a zero return.
 
ttlpkg said:
I think KM would be a good buy, I just checked and it's at 1.68. If that company gets into much more trouble it will surely be bought out, I don't see it falling off of the NYSE.

I bought up some Enron cheap a couple of months ago at .75, but now it is off the NYSE. I think even it will come back to a few dollars eventually.

I like airlines right now too, they are very low, and surely will be back some day. I have AWA and UAL in my portfolio.
Click to expand...

This is a good investment policy. Youd really have to investigate KMarts competitive advantage, Federal ties, and projected cash flow. No doubt US retailing mega stores are being hit hard by increased domestic competition and the US recession. But the question is, does KMart have a strategic advantage in the US retailing market to warrent cash flow bail outs by banking institutions? If they do, theyll get their money, the recession will be over within a year, and if K-Mart can survive that long, the stock will go up.

My dad taught me some very important lessons about the stock market. One, is that the majority of investors are just looking to get rich, know little about business, macroeconomic policy, or firm competitive advantage. Many investors buy stock based on financial ratios, particularly the P/E ratio, which is calculated by
P/E = market price per share/ Earning per share

The higher the PE, the more attractive the stock. But since the numerator used in the calculation of PE is the perceived market value of the stock, its value can be artificially inflated.. the higher the PE, the more people buy, which increases the market value of the stock, which increases the PE ect ect....... The real question is: *who* does the majority of buying of publically traded stocks? Financial investment firms that independantly analyze sound financial and market information, make the buy, then sell portfolios to independant investors? Or traders acting on behalf of independant investors that buy and sell whatever stock their client orders be bought or sold?

If the majority of buying is done by independantly hired traders, not financial investment firms with exsisting portfolios , then some stock ratios are based on the whim of the market, or the whim of the untrained public.

If I had money, Id buy some Kmart stock. Id do some research on Kmart first. find out why they were having cash flow problems, revenue problems, ect.....
 
When I buy---I look for a low PE. This insures more room for growth. Many times, a stock with a very high PE is an inflated stock. This has been the argument against Krispy Kreem (PE=86)for the last year.---but it still maintains stability and inclines.
 
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I wish I would have bought some XMSR when I was watching it at under $5---It now trades at $15 just months later

If XM Satelight Radio drops below $10---Its a must buy--I mean a must buy!
 
I wouldn't touch Kmart with a ten foot pole.....If you are in to investing in bankrupt companies, I've got 5000 shares of ETOYS I'll sell you for a hundred bucks. Believe me, theres a lot of open hands to collect what assets Kmart has left well before stockholders will ever see a penny.

Amazon (AMZN) is turning profits now and is fairly cheap....And their subsidiary Drugstore.com (DSCM) is trading at 3 bucks. If you want a better risk at long term payout look there.
 
ETOYS was a dot-com failure. Probably doesn't have a lot of assets. That's a lot different than Kmart which has infrastructure and brand recognition going back for decades. Kmart is clearly a risk as well though.
 
KM would not be a fast growing investment. They are estimated to do 0.22 earn/shr a share by jan 2003. That number will probably change, but if it's accurate or possible they even get back to positive eps you could see nice steady rise out of it over time if the overall market is stable and ascending.

I don’t know bout their business plan, but I do know KM management is very likely looking to get the share price back over a dollar at least within a year!
 
DOT don't fight tape is what they say, I know a lot of people that were short on INVN in the teens and they got crushed....
 
kunta said:
DOT don't fight tape is what they say, I know a lot of people that were short on INVN in the teens and they got crushed....
Click to expand...

I posted INVN on Elite when it was $3....then again when it had dropped from $11 back to $5.....went from $5 to $41ish

KM is toast....everyone forgets that closing 300 stores is very expensive also.

To the guy talking about AMZN...why bother when Barnes and Nobles BNBN is far better.
 
ttlpkg said:
I think KM would be a good buy, I just checked and it's at 1.68. If that company gets into much more trouble it will surely be bought out, I don't see it falling off of the NYSE.

I bought up some Enron cheap a couple of months ago at .75, but now it is off the NYSE. I think even it will come back to a few dollars eventually.

I like airlines right now too, they are very low, and surely will be back some day. I have AWA and UAL in my portfolio.
Click to expand...

great buy on the enron what is it now? .45....
i do agree about the airlines though, they have been bouncing around though..
check out checkpoint CHKP, it is a mover a few bucks a day, it split @ 9 months ago, but still it think it might be a good buy to get in and out , for a long safe hold look at phillips it had ernings and only came in .09 under, and had a dividend,, it hasn't dropped to much lately..but your best bet is to just keep your eyes open
 
Days of the Tantric said:


Shorting Krispy Kreme, to the extreme that I did, for all intents and purposes, wiped out almost all of my discretionary investment money last year. Sometimes, in the market, PE ratios and fundamentals mean nothing. Within a period of time, that is. Eventually, the stock of a company with poor fundamentals will crash and burn (dot-com bubble). Krispy Kreme's PE is astronomical, as far as i'm concerned. The mistakes I made were:

1) While I was shorting this stock, most of the other shorts in the market were in technology. KKD probably wasn't even on their radar screen.
2) The company has excellent fundamentals.
Click to expand...

It has been my experience that companies like Krispy Kreme are the exception and not the rule.

Also--all y'all watching the airlines--check out royal carribean cruise lines and carnival cruise lines.---They are picking up on a bit of the airline fallout.
 
Here's one for you guys thinking Kmart is still a good purchase....Mark Schwartz was booted because he was cooking the books..and paperwork is missing.

The SEC is reviewing and auditing Kmart's financials in the same manner they are investigating Enron.

Schwartz did this on purpose...he is buddy-buddy with WalMart and killing Kmart will give Walmart free access to Martha. She will have no choice but to leave when this story develops further.

Next?
 
Main problem with KMart is that they don't have a clear identity - WalMart beats them on price almost every time because of their greater distribution efficiency, and Target appeals to a different customer demographic (they used to describe themselves as "your upscale discount store.") Target and WalMart can happily coexist, but KM can't defeat either of them. What's KMart doing to do to give themselves a clear identity? There might be a window of opportunity to emphasize the Super-K grocery/discount store combos, but grocery is a ruthless business.

If I was going to do a trade on the KM situation (having already missed the chance to buy Target before the bankruptcy), I'd short Martha Stewart - I don't think WalMart will want the line, and Target already has name-brand linens and the Michael Graves line of kitchen stuff.

As for airlines, I already own some, but I wouldn't touch UAL with a ten-foot pole, except on a VERY short-term basis - too many labour issues, including a mechanics union that lives in an alternate reality. I have some sympathy for them (they are way beind mechanics at some of the other majors), but there's no way the airline can meet their demands. I don't even think the airline can afford the mediator's recommendation, which UAL management has said they would accept. They've already had a PEB on this one - it could come down to a strike, and I wouldn't be surprised if travel agents are already booking away from UAL. I think UAL will survive (unlike US, which is in a race with America West to see who'll tank first), but there could be a Chapter 11 in their future.

With airlines, unless you're strictly a short-term trader, good management is the key - CEOs like Herb Kelleher (Southwest), Gordon Bethune (Continental), or David Neeleman (JetBlue - I can't wait for the IPO!) In the last decade, UAL has consistently been one of the worst managed companies of its size in any industry. The new CEO may be able turn this around, but there are so many issues - high costs, labour strife, loss of full-fare coach passengers to AA, etc. - that there are better investment opportunities elsewhere.
 
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keeping the debate alive...

News on the Kmart front. They seem to be surviving. The stock dipped below 1$ but rebounded and has remained on the NYSE.

They are trimming fat right and left, and have you noticed their aggressive new ad campaign?

Might want to buy some now, while it's cheap.
 
If the issue new stock to their creditors the current stock can be worthless. They filed for bankruptcy, they cano do this. The economy has signs of comming back. When the economy is strong and consumer confidence goes up people return to buying at neiman marcus and saks...
 
no there is something they can do to re issue new stock that is totally different than the stock that is out there-so there is a possibility to loose your money. They are in banruptcy now, they can always come out of it but they mke come out in the form of a new company. I dont think K mart will ever be able to grow to the size it is now. WAL-Mart outsells them and has similiar prices. In most of the low sales stores walmarts are not too far away...
 
Ok, I have finally put my money where my mouth is. Bought a few KM shares Monday (300) at 1.30. Today it is listed at about 1.60. Hopefully it will get at least back up to the 3.50-4.00 range by the end of the year. Not a bad piece of change for little work and little risk.
 
booting Conaway was a great step....too bad Schwartz sabotaged the company.

By the way, Schwartz's father-in-law owns massive amounts of Fleming stock...Fleming wanted KM dirt cheap....Schwartz works for who now?

That's right....Fleming.
 
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