hurricane187 said:
somehow missed this gm .. would have been all over santana ..angels are best road team in baseball
I salvaged what real money I had left with a 2-0 day
mets and santana
I've printed out my action and will compile composite stats on my bet starters
around 1 in 8 pitches bad
I've told you how to analyze pitching stats
forget ERA,that's a horrible stat with almost nil predictive value
it's your friend because it is so factored in
when you see a pitcher with good core stats in his last 3-4 stats
and the other guy doesn't
bet it
fuck era
fuck home and away
take out the top 2 and bottom 2 and everybody else plays .500 ball basically
I also bet trends
and give equal value to trends and starting pitching recent performance
If I have a strong starter core stats and his team has lost 3 straight
I ain't betting it
unless..
fuvk it
I can't explain it all
most of it is having a good feel based on solid knowledge of both the game and where the spread came from
you should be able to identify why the spread is off
and then bet your thinking is better
ERA is a great stat for value
I gaurantee you the guys who make the spreads look at ERA with little respect
but they use that figure to form their spreads to a very large extent
they know what they're doing
I dont care about names