12/30 NFL Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

[Spartacus]

You think 4-11 is bad. Try 2-13 ATS. Baltimore ends a nightmare season at home to the hungry Steelers, who will be without running back Willie Parker. They will try to avenge a brutal 38-7 loss back in November and try to keep Pittsburgh out of a home Wild Card game.

Oddsmakers currently have the Steelers listed as 3½-point favorites versus the Ravens, while the game's total has not yet been posted.

Ben Roethlisberger threw three touchdown passes, as the Steelers roughed up the Rams in a 41-24 last time out. The Steelers easily covered the 8-point spread, while the 65 points sailed OVER the posted total of 43.5.

Roethlisberger completed 16-of-20 pass attempts for 261 yards, and Najeh Davenport rushed for 123 yards with a touchdown in the win.

The Ravens lost to Seattle 27-6 as a 13.5-point underdog in Week 16. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (39).

Troy Smith completed 16-of-33 passes for 199 yards with a touchdown for Baltimore and Derrick Mason caught five passes for 98 yards with a touchdown.

Current streak:
Baltimore has lost 9 straight games.

 

[silverfish]

in

 

[SLAYER69!]

Pitt

 

[blut wump]

+2

 

[rubberneck]

in

 

[Spartacus]

Pittsburgh players and coaches have indicated that they’ll play this as a pretty normal game rather than resting their starters before the playoffs. However, Ben Roethlisberger will not play this game in order to lessen his chances of getting injured. Charlie Batch is a more than capable backup and new top back Najeh Davenport (5.0 ypr this season and 4.7 ypr in his career) could be an upgrade over injured starter Willie Parker (4.1 ypr this season). Baltimore will go with Troy Smith at quarterback for a second straight start and Smith has been better than the Ravens’ other two quarterbacks in his limited duty so far this season. Smith has averaged 5.4 yards per pass play on 50 pass plays against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback and I see no reason why Smith can’t continue to top the bad numbers of Steve McNair and Kyle Boller. Posting good numbers against Pittsburgh’s defense, however, is not likely since the Steelers have the best pass defense in the league this year. Baltimore will struggle running the ball too with top back Willis McGahee injured. My math model favors Pittsburgh by 6 ½ points and they’re talking like they want to beat up on their hated division rival and perhaps gain the #3 seed in the AFC playoffs in the process (although they’d also need the Chargers to lose to Oakland).

 

[Spartacus]

odd east coast late game

 

[Spartacus]

10-0 early
I'm going to embalm my second guy of the day
got a TV in the embalming room

 

[silverfish]

When the starters "rest" they should give up their game check. Or don't even play the game, fans shouldn't have to pay to watch a bunch of backups play, it's preseason revisited. If you lose the last game of the season, you miss the playoffs, simple.

 

[Spartacus]

don't bet games when it's an issue