12/30 NFL New Orleans @ Chicago

[Spartacus]

It's a rematch of last year's NFC title game, but neither the Saints nor the Bears are headed back to the game in 2007. The Bears come off an upset win, while the Saints come off an upset loss as a disappointing season closes out for each team. Of note, the Saints are 5-2-1 ATS since 1996 vs. the Bears.

Oddsmakers currently have the Saints listed as 1½-point favorites versus the Bears, while the game's total has not yet been posted.

The Saints lost to Philadelphia 38-23 as a 3-point favorite in Week 16. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (48).

Drew Brees completed 30-of-45 passes for 289 yards with an interception for New Orleans and Aaron Stecker rushed for 49 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 13 carries.

The Bears defeated Green Bay 35-7 as a 7.5-point underdog in Week 16. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (31.5).

Adrian Peterson rushed for 102 yards and a touchdown on 30 carries for Chicago, while Brian Urlacher returned an interception 85 yards for a touchdown.

 

[Spartacus]

New Orleans needs to win this game to have any hope of reaching the playoffs (they also need Washington and Minnesota to lose), but Chicago is still playing hard and the Saints still don’t have a defense. New Orleans is a very good offensive team and Chicago is a bit below average defensively, but the Saints have a horrible defense that can’t stop the pass. New Orleans has allowed 7.2 yards per pass play to a schedule of opposing quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.5 yppp against an average defensive team. The Saints allowed Jacksonville’s horrible backup quarterback Quinn Gray throw for well over 300 yards at 9.8 yppp and also allowed Tampa Bay backup Luke McCown to average 7.4 yppp. Chicago’s Kyle Orton has averaged only 4.3 yppp in his career, but he’s improved a bit since being a rookie starter in 2005 (5.2 yppp as a starter the last two weeks) and my math model projects a solid 6.3 yppp for Orton against the Saints’ horrible defense and that’s without adjusting for the loss of the Saints’ top CB Mike McKenzie, who was put on injured reserve after being hurt last week. New Orleans is likely to out-gain the Bears in this game, but Chicago has a huge edge in special teams and my math model favors the Bears by 1 point. Chicago applies to a 65-29 ATS situation and I believe they’ll play hard in their finale in front of their fans.

 

[rubberneck]

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