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12/30 NFL Buffalo @ Philadelphia

  • Thread starter Thread starter Spartacus
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Spartacus

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Philly's erratic season will come to close at home against the mercurial Bills. The Eagles come off a pair of impressive road upsets to close the season at home as big favorites. The running game is likely to decide this one, as the Eagles rank fourth in home efficiency while the Bills rank 28th in defending the run on the road.

Oddsmakers currently have the Eagles listed as 7½-point favorites versus the Bills, while the game's total is sitting at 37½.

The Bills lost to the Giants 38-21 as a 2.5-point underdog in Week 16. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (32).

Trent Edwards completed 9-of-26 passes for 161 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions for Buffalo and Marshawn Lynch rushed for 70 yards on 18 carries with a touchdown.

The Eagles defeated New Orleans 38-23 as a 3-point underdog in Week 16. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (48).

Donovan McNabb threw for 263 yards with three touchdowns for Philadelphia, while Kevin Curtis caught six passes for 78 yards with a touchdown and he also recovered a fumble in the end zone in the win.
 
My math model favors the Eagles by 7 ½ points and there are situations favoring both sides in this game. Philadelphia is a bit banged up for this game, especially in the secondary, as they will be without star safety Brian Dawkins and possibly CB Lito Sheppard. I suggest passing on this game, but I’ll lean slightly with Buffalo at +7 ½ points or more.
 
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