12/16 NFL Detroit @ San Diego

[Notorious_BIG]

Remember when Detroit was 6-2 and heading for the playoffs? That was five weeks and five losses ago as the Lions returned to their losing ways. This week, they travel to San Diego who come off a rally win at Tennessee and are double-digit chalk. The Chargers have also won and covered the previous three meetings with Detroit.

Oddsmakers currently have the Chargers listed as 10-point favorites versus the Lions, while the game's total is sitting at 46.

The Lions lost to Dallas 28-27 as a 10.5-point underdog in Week 14. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (50.5).

Jon Kitna completed 22-of-36 passes for 248 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions for Detroit, while Kevin Jones rushed for 92 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries.

The Chargers defeated Tennessee 23-17 in overtime as a 1.5-point favorite in Week 14. The combined score caused this game to be a PUSH on the posted over/under total (40).

LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 146 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries and caught a touchdown pass for San Diego, while Philip River completed 21-of-40 passes for 228 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in the win.

 

[crazyjoe]

in

 

[Notorious_BIG]

The Chargers were fortunate to win at Tennessee last week and they usually beat up on bad teams (17-4-1 ATS the last 4 seasons when not favored by more than 11 points against a team with a losing record). Detroit isn’t actually a bad team despite their current slide, as the Lions are 0.3 yards per play better than average on offense and just 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively. San Diego is only 0.1 yppl better than average on both sides of the ball, which is hardly dominating, but the Chargers do have a significant edge in special teams. My math model favors the Chargers by only 8 points and I’d shave a couple more points off of that number with star LB Shawn Merriman not expected to play for San Diego. The Lions apply to a solid 71-32-1 ATS bounce-back situation that balances out the Chargers’ favorable team trend and I’ll lean with Detroit plus the points.

 

[Longhorn85]

We are due for a Norv meltdown