12/16 NFL Arizona @ New Orleans

[Notorious_BIG]

It's probably too late for both the Cardinals and Saints, but they one will keep their NFC Wild Card hopes alive and one will be officially finished. For all their shortcomings, the Cards defend the pass pretty well on the road and they will see an aerial show from Drew Brees Sunday.

Oddsmakers currently have the Saints listed as 4-point favorites versus the Cardinals, while the game's total is sitting at 49.

The Cardinals lost to Seattle 42-21 as a 7.5-point underdog in Week 14. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (44.5).

Kurt Warner completed 28-of-46 passes for 337 yards with three touchdowns and five interceptions for Arizona, while Jerheme Urban caught six passes for 123 yards with a touchdown.

Drew Brees threw three touchdown passes last week, as the Saints defeated the Falcons 34-14. The Saints easily covered the 4.5-point spread, while the combined 48 points made it OVER the posted total of 44.

Brees completed 28-of-41 passes for 328 yards in the win, and Marques Colston caught nine passes for 92 yards with two TD catches.

 

[Notorious_BIG]

Normally, I’d like my chances with a good passing Cardinals’ offense going up against the worst pass defense in recent memory, but the Cardinals’ great receiving corps is banged up and their defense isn’t as good without Bertrand Berry. Arizona’s top receiver Larry Fitzgerald returned last week from a one game absence and he’s not 100% and two time All-Pro Anquan Boldin may miss his second straight game (he’s a game time decision and won’t be 100% if he does play). Kurt Warner still posted better than average passing numbers last week against the Seahawks and he’s not likely to throw 5 interceptions this week. With that being the case the Cardinals will move the ball pretty easily against a Saints’ defense that has allowed 7.2 yards per pass play to a collection of mostly bad quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.4 yppp against an average defensive team. The Saints will also be able to move the ball well in this game, as Drew Brees is back in form after struggling early in the season and the Cardinals have gone from decent to below average defensively in 4 games without star DE Bertrand Berry. My math model actually forecasts Arizona to average 6.3 yards per play to 6.2 yppl for the Saints even after adjusting for the Cards’ injuries but Brees is less likely to throw interceptions and Arizona has horrible special teams. My math model favors New Orleans by 5 points, but the Saints are just 3-10 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more in two seasons under Sean Payton, so I’m not eager to lay more than 3 points with the Saints. I’ll pass.

 

[crazyjoe]

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