11/25 NFL Washington +3.5 @ Tampa

[Spartacus]

In the NFC, .500 puts you firmly in the Wild Card hunt, which makes this battle of mediocrity an interesting one for both bettors and playoff positioning. Washington comes off a loss to the Giants where Jason Campbell threw a bad last-minute pick, while Tampa crushed Atlanta in their first offensive outburst since Week 2.

Oddsmakers currently have the Buccaneers listed as 3-point favorites versus the Redskins, while the game's total is sitting at 38.

The Redskins lost to Dallas 28-23 as an 11-point underdog in Week 11. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (47).

Jason Campbell completed 33-of-54 passes for 348 yards with two touchdowns and an interception for Washington, while Santana Moss caught nine passes for 121 yards with a touchdown.

The Buccaneers defeated Atlanta 31-7 as a 3-point favorite in Week 11. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (35.5).

Earnest Graham rushed for 102 yards on 17 carries with a touchdown for Tampa Bay, while Jeff Garcia completed 10-of-20 passes for 159 yards with two touchdowns.

 

[gotmilk]

up

 

[Spartacus]

Washington can no longer depend on their defense to win games now that the secondary has been decimated by injuries to starters CB Carlos Rogers and S Sean Taylor, who are both much better than their replacements. The Redskins don’t have quality depth in the defensive backfield and their pass defense has gone from great to below average in 3 games since Rogers was injured. Jeff Garcia is having a great season (7.1 yards per pass play and has only been intercepted in one game all season – 3 times against Jacksonville) and he should continue to perform well in this game against the makeshift Redskins’ secondary. It may be tough for Washington’s below average offense to keep up against a solid Tampa Bay defense that has yielded just 4.6 yards per play this season (to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team). My math model favors Tampa Bay by 8 points in this game after adjusting for the current state of Washington’s defense but the Redskins apply to a 19-1 ATS subset of a 71-31-1 ATS bounce-back situation. I’ll pass on the side and lean with the Over (the Redskins have gone Over in 5 consecutive games).

 

[Longhorn85]

Washington can no longer depend on their defense to win games now that the secondary has been decimated by injuries

Not only that, but Dallas exposed that glaring weakness and any smart coach will go after it hard.

Let's see if the Redskins highly-touted and highy-paid Assistant Coach-Defense, Greg Williams, can make the necessary adjustments.