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11/25 NFL Denver @ Chicago

  • Thread starter Thread starter Spartacus
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Spartacus

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The Broncos made themselves relevant again with a solid Monday Night win over the Titans, but now must follow it up with a win at Chicago. The Bears should be out of the playoff picture, but because of the weak NFC, they can remain in the hunt with a win here. The Bears have failed to cover at home all season.

Oddsmakers currently have the Bears listed as 1½-point favorites versus the Broncos, while the game's total is sitting at 41.

Jay Cutler threw two touchdown passes to lead the Broncos to a 30-24 win over the Titans last time out. The Broncos had no trouble covering the slight 1-point spread, and the 54 points sailed OVER the posted total pf 38.5.

Cutler completed 16-of-21 pass attempts for 200 yards for the Broncos, and Andre Hall rushed for a 62 yard TD in the win.

The Bears lost to Seattle 30-23 as a 5.5-point underdog in Week 11. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (38).

Rex Grossman completed 24-of-37 passes for 266 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions, while Cedric Benson rushed for 89 yards on 11 carries with a touchdown.
 
Denver’s offense, which has moved the ball well all season (6.1 yards per play with QB Jay Cutler in the game), is finally starting to turn those yards into points and the Broncos should continue to move the ball well against a sub-par Chicago defense that has 0.3 yards per play worse than average in 9 games without star S Mike Brown. Denver’s defense has been even worse (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team) and the Bears struggling offense should move the ball at decent rate even though they rate at 0.9 yppl worse than average with Rex Grossman at quarterback. Chicago has a big advantage in special teams with Devon Hester returning kicks but my math model favors Denver by ½ a point in a high scoring game. Chicago applies to a decent 61-26-5 ATS contrary indicator, but I still have a tough time laying points with the Bears with Grossman at quarterback (Chicago is 2-4 straight up and 1-5 ATS as a favorite this year). The side is tough to pick but the Over looks like a solid play and Denver has gone Over the total in 8 of their last 9 games.
 
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