11-18 Tampa Bay -3.5 @ Atlanta

[Notorious_BIG]

Atlanta has suddenly won two in a row and covered three straight. Are they really improving or were they just lucky to catch banged-up Carolina and Frisco the past two weeks? Can the Bucs raid them after a string of tough opponents?

Oddsmakers currently have the Buccaneers listed as 3-point favorites versus the Falcons, while the game's total is sitting at 35½.

The Buccaneers defeated Arizona 17-10 as a 3.5-point favorite in Week 9. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (39).

Earnest Graham rushed for 124 yards and a touchdown on 34 carries for Tampa Bay, while Jeff Garcia completed 18-of-28 passes for 196 yards with a touchdown in the win.

The Falcons defeated Carolina 20-13 as a 3.5-point underdog in Week 10. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (35.5).

Warrick Dunn rushed for 89 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries for Atlanta, while Joey Harrington completed 19-of-26 passes for 192 yards with a touchdown in the win.

 

[puddlemonkey]

All in Tampa.

 

[Notorious_BIG]

there's opportunities in the dull games too

 

[Notorious_BIG]

The Falcons aren’t saying who their starting quarterback will be this week with Byron Leftwich returning the practice and Joey Harrington having led the team to two straight victories. Leftwich may be a better choice if healthy but he didn’t show it in limited playing time this season (just 4.8 yards per pass play). Tampa Bay is clearly the better team here, as they rate as 0.4 yards per play better than average on offense (with Garcia at quarterback) and 0.5 yppl better than average defensively. The Falcons are 0.5 yppl worse than average on offense (4.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and 0.3 yppl worse than average on defense (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team). The Bucs are also less likely to turn the ball over given Jeff Garcia’s low lifetime interception rate (he’s only thrown 3 picks this season and 5 interception on 446 pass attempts going back to last year) and my math model favors Tampa Bay by 7 points in this game. I’ll lean with the Falcons despite the math, as Atlanta applies to a very good 37-7 ATS home underdog momentum situation.

 

[Spartacus]

fuck atlanta