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11/18 NFL Miami @ Philadelphia

  • Thread starter Thread starter Spartacus
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Spartacus

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Miami is out to break their 0-9 season goose egg when they visit Philly Sunday. Can they pull the same type of upset as the Rams, who finally got their win on the road against a superior foe last week? It's the warm-weather Dolphins against the cold-weather Eagles.

Oddsmakers currently have the Eagles listed as 10½-point favorites versus the Dolphins, while the game's total is sitting at 40½.

The Dolphins lost to Buffalo 13-10 as a 2.5-point underdog in Week 10. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (41).

Cleo Lemon completed 16-of-29 passes for 131 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions and ran in for a score for Miami, while Jesse Chapman rushed for 124 yards on 27 carries.

The Eagles upset Washington 33-25 as a 2.5-point underdog in Week 10. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (37.5).

Donovan McNabb threw four touchdown passes for Philadelphia, while Brian Westbrook rushed for 100 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries and also caught two touchdown passes in the win.
 
The Dolphins are turning to rookie quarterback John Beck in place of the ineffective Cleo Lemon and I'll assume for now that Beck will play at about the same level as Lemon did, which is about 1.0 yards per pass play worse than average. If that is the case then my math model favors Philadelphia by 12 12 points, but I'll still lean with Miami on the basis of a 41-11-2 ATS contrary situation that plays on winless teams.
 
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